This Sunday the San Francisco 49ers (4-10) will host the Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4). Kickoff is set for 4:05 EST on Christmas Eve at Levi’s Stadium and will be televised locally on CBS.

Oddsmakers currently have Jacksonville listed as a 4.5-point road favorite with the total set at 42.5 points. Click here for a full Week 16 betting schedule and for more links to our individual game previews.

Jaguars vs 49ers Vegas Betting Odds & Game Preview

Jacksonville comes into this one off a 45-7 blowout win at home over the Texans, easily covering as a 10.5-point favorite. It was every bit as dominating a performance as the final score would indicate, as the Jaguars outgained Houston 464 to 186 and had 25 first downs to the Texans 9. The win clinched at least a Wild Card spot for Jacksonville. They simply need to win one of their final two games or have the Titans lose to the Rams at home this Sunday to clinch the AFC South title. A first round bye is also not out of the question, as they are just 1-game back of the Steelers, who they own the tiebreaker on thanks to a 30-9 win at Pittsburgh earlier this season.

San Francisco helped out the Jaguars this past weekend, as they knocked off Tennessee 25-23 on a last second field goal. Those that bet the 49ers early in the week around a pick’em got the cover, but San Francisco did fail to cover the closing line as a 2.5-point favorite. The 49ers have now won 3 straight games, all of which have come after Jimmy Garoppolo took over the starting quarterback job.

Free NFL Betting Pick & ATS Predictions: 49ers +4.5

I would have to lean towards taking the points here with San Francisco at home. Even though the 49ers come in having won 3 straight and 4 of their last 5, this is still far from a public team and they certainly aren’t going to be the popular side in this one. That’s because the Jaguars have twice as many wins as San Francisco and are rolling right now. Jacksonville has won 3 straight and 6 of 7 overall with the most recent being a 38-point thrashing of the Texans.

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I think it’s a perfect storm for the 49ers to not only cover at home, but win this game outright. I know there’s a lot still at stake for the Jaguars, but I think this is an ideal letdown spot for them. They just clinched their first playoff appearance in 10-years. That’s something the players certainly celebrated. Keep in mind that even with a loss here they could win the division if the struggling Titans lose at home to red-hot Rams. Even if Tennessee were to pull off the upset, Jacksonville could clinch the division with a win the next week at the Titans.

Another thing here that I think is getting overlooked with the Jaguars is that 5 of their 6 wins during their 6-1 stretch have come at home. The lone loss was on the road against a Cardinals team that hasn’t been playing well and are decimated with injuries. Like that game against Arizona, this contest against the 49ers comes a long way from home, which will only make it that much harder on this team.

The other big thing for me is that I don’t think you can treat the 49ers like a 5-10 team. They are a perfect 3-0 with Garoppolo at quarterback and he’s looked every bit the part of a franchise quarterback. Garoppolo threw for 293 yards in his first start at Chicago, he then threw for 334 yards at Houston and capped it off last week with 381 yards against the Titans. He’s got this entire franchise in a frenzy with his play. More than anything, he’s given the rest of this team a reason to be excited and that’s a big reason why we have seen this team play so well despite having nothing to play for.

Keep in mind that the 49ers had 5 losses early in the year by 3-points or less. You have to believe that had Garoppolo been the starter the entire way in 2017, the perception of this team would be a lot different, as they would likely be sitting at at least 8-6 right now. I think that 49ers team might actually be favored here against the Jags, so it’s easy to see the value with the current line. Give me San Francisco +4.5!