The New York Jets (3-7) host the New England Patriots (7-3) this Sunday afternoon in an AFC East showdown. Kickoff is set for 1:00 PM EST on November 25th at MetLife Stadium and the game will be broadcast on CBS.

Oddsmakers opened this game up with the Patriots listed as 7.5-point road favorites. That line has shifted substantially after early betting, as New England is currently available at -9.5. The total for this matchup is 46 points. Click here for a full look at the Week 12 NFL odds and for more links to our individual game previews.

Jets vs Pats Vegas Odds & Game Preview

New England is coming off a brutal 34-10 road loss to Tennessee two weekends ago, so there is little doubt they will be highly motivated to turn things around here in Week 13 after their bye week. The Patriots were dominated on both sides of the ball by the Titans, although QB Tom Brady certainly wasn’t at his best either. Brady threw for only 254 yards while barely completing 50% of his passing attempts. He will be extremely happy to get TE Rob Gronkowski back on offense on Sunday, as Gronk is trending towards probable on the injury report. RB Sony Michel may also be back after suffering a knee injury, as he is currently listed as questionable. In any event, Brady will take aim at a Jets defense that is currently giving up 242.1 yards per game through the air. As a whole, New England is currently averaging 28.0 points per game on 377.2 total yards of offense.

The Patriots have looked fairly average on defense through their first ten games, as opponents are currently averaging 23.6 points per game (15th overall) on 381.4 yards of total offense. However, they haven’t been that great defending against the pass, giving up 270.3 yards per game through the air (25th overall).

New York also had a lot to think about during their bye week in Week 11, as they got crushed 41-10 at home by the hapless Buffalo Bills in Week 10. The Jets were horrible on both sides of the ball, getting outgained 451-199 in total yardage. QB Josh McCown was absolutely dreadful, completing just 50% of his throws for 135 yards while also getting picked off twice. They certainly didn’t have a good game on the ground either, as their leading rusher Elijah McGwire had only six carries for 30 yards. Things likely won’t get all that much easier against the Patriots for this offense, as Sam Darnold is out due to a lingering foot injury while Robby Anderson is expected to be limited after hurting his ankle several weeks ago. Overall, New York is currently averaging just 20.8 points per game (24th overall) on 299.4 total yards of offense.

The Jets have been below average defensively for the most part this year, giving up an average of 25.4 points per game to opponents on 361.6 yards of total offense. They have been below average against both the run and the pass, ranking 22nd and 16th overall respectively.

Free NFL Betting Prediction: New England -9.5

I’m utterly shocked that the Patriots aren’t double-digit favorites in this particular matchup, as the Jets have been brutal this season and are now dealing with injuries to several key players. New England will also potentially get Gronkowski and Michel back in Week 13, which tips the scales even more in their favor. Josh McCown showed who he really is as a quarterback last weekend, and now has to attempt to find success through the air without his leading receiver. The ground game has been a mess for the Jets as well, as their leading rusher against the Bills gained less then 40 yards.

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New York is just 1-5 ATS over their last six games following a straight up loss. They are also a brutal 0-4 ATS in their last four games against an opponent from the AFC East and 0-4 ATS over their last four games overall. New England is a solid 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall. They are also a perfect 4-0 ATS over their last four divisional games.

Even with all those trends favoring the Pats in this matchup, the biggest reason for my decision to roll with New England this weekend is directly related to how poorly they played against Tennessee in their last game. They’ve had almost two full weeks to think about that lackluster effort, not to mention having to deal with all the questions surrounding the loss itself. I have no doubt that Belichick will have his troops champing at the bit for an opportunity to redeem themselves and silence the critics against the lowly Jets. I’m laying the 9.5 points all day in this spot, as I think Brady and Co. will cover this spread with ease – give me the Patriots.