The New Orleans Saints look to take one step closer to the NFC South division title when they host the New York Jets in Week 15. The game is scheduled for 1:00 EST on Sunday, December 17 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans. Fans in local markets can watch the game on CBS.

Oddsmakers list the Saints as 14.5-point favorites at home. The over/under is set at 40.5 points. Click here for a full list of the Week 15 betting odds and links to more game previews.

Jets vs Saints Game Preview & Betting Odds

The Saints have lost two of their last three games, dropping them to 9-4 on the season. New Orleans is still on top of the NFC South but not by much. They own the tiebreaker with the Panthers, who are also 9-4. But they are also just one game ahead of the 8-4 Falcons. Fortunately for the Saints, they still control their own destiny and can win the division if they win their final three games.

The Jets, meanwhile, have fallen out of the playoff picture after losing 23-0 in Denver last week. New York is just 2-6 in their last eight games, dropping them to 5-8 on the season. Even if they win out, a playoff spot is unlikely. To make matters worse, Josh McCown, who had played surprisingly well this season, is out for the year after breaking his left hand against the Broncos. Bryce Petty is expected to start against the Saints.

Free NFL Pick Against the Spread: Saints -14.5

This is a huge spread to cover, especially for a team that’s lost two of their last three games. But I don’t see the Jets coming back from a shutout loss and an injury to their starting quarterback. The Saints will be desperate to get back on track at home, and so they’ll put their best foot forward and beat the Jets in a blowout.

I can forgive the Saints losing two of their last three games. Both games were close, on the road, and against teams in the playoff race. It’s been a different story at home, where the Saints are 5-1 this year. That’s a big reason why I’m comfortable swallowing this many points,

Click on the link for more free NFL betting predictions from our experts on staff.

In their last three home games, the Saints have scored at least 30 points. Even against a quality Carolina defense a couple weeks ago, they had no trouble putting up 400 yards of offense and 31 points. Despite missing most of last week’s game, Alvin Kamara is expected to play against the Jets. His return should have the New Orleans offense firing on all cylinders. 

Against a below-average Jets defense, I have no problem believing the Saints will score at least 30 points. The Jets couldn’t even stop a beleaguered Denver offense last week, allowing the Broncos to snap an eight-game losing streak. That makes it hard to believe the Jets will come into the Superdome and be able to slow down Drew Brees and all the playmakers the Saints have on offense.

Then there’s the matter of Petty being the one leading the New York offense. The Jets were functional offensively with McCown because he’s an inexperienced quarterback who can find weaknesses in the defense. The Jets have no such luxury with Petty running the show. Petty has just three touchdowns and seven interceptions in his career. He was also just 2 for 9 for 14 yards in limited action last week after McCown went down.

It’d be different if the Jets had a better supporting cast around Petty, but they don’t. The Jets have a below-average running game and not much at the receiver position outside of Robby Anderson. The New Orleans defense is also better than most people think. They have more than enough talent to shut down Petty and the New York offense.

Obviously, swallowing this many points is not something to do lightly. But the Saints are at home and in need of a win. They’re also playing a team that’s using a backup quarterback and has little left to play for this season. This is one of the occasions where it’s reasonable to expect a team like the Saints to cover a 14.5-point spread.