This Saturday the No. 11 Oklahoma Sooners (5-1, 3-3 ATS) will host the No. 14 Kansas State Wildcats (4-1, 3-2 ATS) inside Big 12 play. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 EST at Memorial Stadium and will be televised on ESPN. Oddsmakers currently have Oklahoma listed as a 8.5-point home favorite over Kansas State.
Last year the Sooners won 41-31 as a 5.5-point road underdog, getting their revenge from 2012’s 24-19 home loss to the Wildcats as a 15.5-point favorite. Kansas State’s only other win in the series over the last 10 years was a 35-7 victory in Norman back in 2003.
Early Lean on Kansas State +8.5
Even though the Wildcats have been bet down after originally opening as a 12-point dog, I still think there’s a lot of value here getting 8.5. Kansas State has a history of playing the Sooners tough on the road, as they are 3-1-1 ATS with two outright wins as a double-digit dog.
The Wildcats are also a great team to back on the road against a quality opponent in general. Kansas State is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 road games against a team with a winning home record. For whatever reason this Kansas State team just doesn’t get the respect they deserve, especially inside Big 12 play. The Wildcats are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 conference games.
For whatever reason this Kansas State team just doesn’t get the respect they deserve, especially inside Big 12 play. The Wildcats are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 conference games.
One of the keys to this game is where it falls on the schedule for these two teams. While Oklahoma is coming off their huge rivalry game against Texas, the Wildcats have are coming off a bye. Getting two full weeks to prepare with a great head coach like Bill Synder is a big advantage.
While the Sooners were able to hold on for a 31-26 win over Texas, they were extremely fortunate to win that game outright. The Longhorns had a 482 to 232 edge in total yards and 24 to 11 advantage in first downs. Had it not been for two non-offensive touchdowns (91-yard kick return and 43-yard interception), Oklahoma would have likely lost that game. Adding to this is the fact that the Sooners have now been outgained in all 3 of their conference games. Kansas State has only lost the yardage battle once all season and that was by just 74 yards to Auburn.
We also see a solid system here telling us to fade Oklahoma, as home favorites in a conference game involving two mistake-free teams that are averaging 1.25 or less turnovers/game are just 36-82 (30%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.