This Thursday the Texas Tech Red Raiders (2-1) will host the Kansas Jayhawks (1-2). Kickoff is set for 8:30 EST at Jones AT&T Stadium and will be televised on Fox Sports 1. Oddsmakers have the Red Raiders as a 28.5-point home favorite for this Week 5 Big 12 matchup. The over/under for this contest is currently at 80 points.
Kansas vs Texas Tech Vegas Odds Preview
Both teams were not in action this past week, as each enjoyed an early bye. Texas Tech has won and covered each of their first two home games. They won 69-17 as a 38-point favorite in the opener against Stephen F. Austin. They then rebounded from a 55-68 loss at ASU to beat Louisiana Tech 59-45 as a 11.5-point favorite.
Kansas opened up with a 55-6 blowout win at home against Rhode Island. Easily covering as a 28-point favorite. Since then it’s been downhill. The Jayhawks lost 21-37 at home to Ohio as a 2.5-point favorite and 7-43 at Memphis as a 20-point dog.
Last year Texas Tech looked well on their way to covering as a massive 33-point road favorite at Kansas. The Red Raiders led 20-0 at the half, but ended up winning by a final of just 30-20. The game easily stayed under the total of 74.
Free Betting Pick & Game Predictions: Kansas +28.5
If I had to take a side here, I would have to take the Jayhawks catching over 4 touchdowns. Oddsmakers have no choice here but to inflate this line on the Red Raiders.
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The betting public wants nothing to do with Kansas, who has gone a horrific 2-22 over their last 24 games. Not to mention they are just 4-11 against the spread in their last 15.
Texas Tech has some serious offensive fire-power. The Red Raiders come in averaging 61.0 ppg on a ridiculous 679 yards/game. The betting public is going to see this and lay the points without hesitating. Especially, after seeing the Jayhawks only managed 7-points in their last game at Memphis.
The thing is that Texas Tech doesn’t have a great defense. The Red Raiders come in giving up 5 yards/carry on the ground and 7.9 yards/pass attempt. Kansas has a history of covering the number against teams who struggle defensively. The Jayhawks are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 against teams that allow 31 or more points/game.
Another big concern I have here with Texas Tech is how motivated they are going to be for this game. Kansas doesn’t exactly put fear into their opponents and the focus might not be there coming off a bye.
You also have to look at how competitive the Jayhawks have been in this series. Last year they only lost by 10-points as a 33-point dog. The previous year they lost by just 13 as a double-digit dog at Texas Tech. Only once in the last 6 meetings have the Red Raiders beat Kansas by more than 28 points.
It’s no secret that Texas Tech’s strength offensively is their passing attack. While I’m not saying Kansas’ secondary is top notch, it’s been decent so far. Opposing quarterbacks are only completing 47.6% of their attempts against them on the season. They also are allowing just 4.8 yards/pass attempt.
They aren’t going to hold the Red Raiders to those marks. However, if they can limit the big plays through the air, it increases their chances of covering. I wouldn’t be surprised if Texas Tech didn’t keep this one pretty vanilla on offense. There’s no reason to open up the playbook against an inferior opponent. Especially with the schedule they have looming.
Lastly, Road underdogs of 21.5 or more points who have failed to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record, are 92-44 (68%) ATS since 1992.