This Tuesday the Bowling Green Falcons (1-7) will host the Kent State Golden Flashes (1-7). Kickoff is set for 8:00 EST at Doyt Perry Stadium and will be televised on ESPNU.
Taking a look at the Week 10 college football odds, the books opened with Kent State as a 1.5-point favorite, but as of right now it’s a pick’em. The total for this matchup is currently 64.
Vegas Game Odds & Betting Preview: Bowling Green vs Kent State
The Golden Flashes come into this game off a crushing 24-23 overtime loss at home to Akron. Instead of kicking the extra point and forcing a second overtime, Kent State went for the win and came up short. That’s the Golden Flashes second loss this season by a single points, as they fell 27-26 to Ohio a few weeks back. Overall Kent State has lost 6 straight and are sitting at 0-4 in MAC play.
Things aren’t going any better for the Falcons. Bowling Green comes into this one off a 49-14 blowout loss at Ohio. The Falcons actually made a game of it early, as it was 14-14 early in the 2nd quarter, but it was all Ohio from that point on. The Falcons have lost 5 straight and are also winless at 0-4 in conference action.
Last year Bowling Green went on the road and defeated Kent State 44-16 as a slim 1.5-point favorite. It was very similar to 2016, when the Falcons won 42-7 as a slim 2.5-point favorite.
Free College Football Pick & Betting Predictions: UNDER 64
I’m not a big fan of betting on the spread in games that involve two bad teams, but I do think there’s some value here with the total and this game staying UNDER the mark.
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A lot of people are going to just look at how bad these two teams are defensively and just expect this thing to be a shootout. Bowling Green is allowing 47.7 ppg and 518 ypg, while Kent State is giving up 35.0 ppg and 490 ypg.
I personally don’t think these two have the talent offensively to take advantage of those awful defenses. The Golden Flashes are only scoring 23 ppg and just 16.2 ppg on the road. Bowling Green isn’t much better at 25.6 ppg.
I also think it’s important to note that both teams struggle to run the football. Kent State is 69th in the country, averaging 171.6 yards/game. Bowling Green is 122nd at 106.6 yards/game. With winds expected to be blowing across the field at more than 15 mph, it’s going to force them to run a lot more than they would like. We could also see it impact the scoring on special teams, as field goals become that much tougher with a cross wind.
A couple other factors for me is that both teams should be well rested and prepared, having not played since Oct. 20th. Sitting at 1-7 there’s no hope of a bowl game for either of these teams, but I have to think both are going to come into this game feeling like they should win. That energy and effort should pay off defensively.
UNDER is 10-1 in Kent State’s last 11 road games against a team with a losing home record and 4-1 in their last 5 conference games. UNDER is also 20-6 in the Falcons last 26 home games against a team with a losing road record. All signs point to a much-lower scoring game than what the books are calling for. Give me the UNDER 64!