This Sunday the New Orleans Saints (2-2) will host the Detroit Lions (3-2) in a big game for both of these teams. Kickoff is set for 1:00 EST at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome and will be televised locally on FOX.
Oddsmakers currently have New Orleans listed as a 4.5-point home favorite with the total anywhere from 49.5 to 51 points. Click on the link for access to our Week 6 NFL betting lines, which includes links to our game previews.
Lions vs Saints Vegas Game Odds & Betting Predictions
Detroit comes into this one off a 24-27 loss to the Panthers as a short home favorite. The Lions did a nice job making it close after going into the 4th quarter trailing by 17 (10-27).
New Orleans will be returning from their bye, which came at a good time following their trip to London. The Saints defeated the Dolphins 20-0 overseas, which was their first shutout by the defense since 2012. New Orleans has done a nice job of getting back to .500 after their 0-2 start.
This will be the third straight year these two teams will play a cross-division matchup in New Orleans. Last season the Lions won 28-13 as a 6-point dog. The previous year they won 35-27 as a 2-point dog. The Saints last win in the series was a 45-28 home victory back in 2012.
NFL Betting Pick Against the Spread & Free Predictions: Saints -4.5
I’m a little bit surprised the public is so high on Detroit in this matchup. It just goes to show how little the public thinks of the Saints. I think it’s going to cost them and see a ton of value here with New Orleans laying less than a touchdown. For starters, the Saints are coming off a bye, which has proven to be a very profitable spot to back them. New Orleans is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games off a bye.
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I’ve really liked what I have seen from this Saints team so far in 2017. Nothing to be ashamed about losing on the road on Monday Night Football in Week 1 against Minnesota and at home to the Patriots. I was really impressed with their ability to bounce back and dominate a very good Panthers team on the road and follow it up with an easy win over the Dolphins.
I’m not going to get too carried away with the Saints’ defensive performance against Miami, who is dead last in the NFL in total offense, but I do think New Orleans is improved on that side of the ball. The big key here is the Lions offensive line is really struggling and Stafford is paying the price. He’s been sacked 6 times in each of the last two games. New Orleans only has 11 sacks on the year, but did rack up 4 sacks on Jay Cutler.
It’s also worth pointing out that while Stafford is probable, he’s far from 100% right now. He’s dealing with an ankle injury that will make it tough for him to move in the pocket. One hit where he lands the wrong way on that ankle and his day could be done.
This is also a great matchup for Brees and the Saints offense. While Detroit has been one of the better teams at stopping the run (3rd, 74.6 ypg), they are near the bottom of the league against the pass (27th, 255.8 ypg). As has been the case for the past decade, New Orleans features one of the best passing attacks in the NFL (4th, 276.5 ypg).
I know the Saints appear to have lost that home field advantage, but if the defense continues to play like it has the past few weeks, I think we will see them return to that form that made them so dominant in the Superdome.
Detroit is now just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 against the NFC and 5-15 ATS in their last 20 off a home loss by 3 points or less. The Saints are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games vs teams that are +1 or better in turnover margin and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after covering their last game.
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