This Thursday the Detroit Lions (6-4) will host the Minnesota Vikings (8-2) in the first of three NFL games on Thanksgiving Day. Kickoff is set for 12:30 EST at Ford Field and will be televised nationally on FOX.

Oddsmakers currently have the Vikings listed as a 3-point road favorite with the total set at 44.5 points. Check out our Week 12 NFL odds page for a full betting schedule and more links to our game previews.

Vikings vs Lions Vegas Game Odds & Betting Preview

Minnesota comes into this one off an impressive 24-7 win at home over the Rams as a 2.5-point favorite. LA put together a 9-play 75-yard touchdown drive on their first possession, but that was all the offense they could generate, as the Vikings defense limited them to just 179 yards the rest of the way. Minnesota has now won 6 straight and are tied with the Saints for the second best record in the NFC.

Things didn’t look good early for Detroit in last week’s game at Chicago. The Lions fell behind 7-17 early, but took a 21-17 lead into the half and went on to win 27-24 as a 3-point favorite. Detroit has now won 3 straight following their 3-game losing streak that had them sitting at just 3-4.

These two teams played back in Week 4 at Minnesota. The Lions won that contest 14-7 as a 3-point road dog. Neither team could get much going offensively, as the two teams combined for just 535 total yards.

NFL Betting Predictions & Free ATS Pick: Vikings -3

I think we are getting some decent value here with Minnesota laying just a field goal on the road against the Lions. The Vikings are going to be out for revenge here. Not only for their earlier 7-14 loss to Detroit at home, but they have lost 3 straight overall in the series, including a crushing 13-16 loss at Detroit last Thanksgiving. Vikings are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games when revenging a loss where they scored 14 or fewer points.

Click here for more free NFL picks against the betting spreads and totals for this week’s games.

Despite the fact that Minnesota sits at 8-2, I just don’t feel this team gets the respect they deserve from the books. We saw it last week when they were less than a field goal favorite at home against the Rams. I think we are seeing them undervalued again, as I’m just not buying this Lions team. Sure Detroit is 6-4, but a lot of those wins have come against bad teams, especially during their 3-game winning streak. A stretch in which they have played Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers, as well as the Browns and Bears. Note that they had to rally from 10-points down against both Cleveland and Chicago. It’s great they were able to pull out the wins, but I think it also speaks to just how this isn’t an elite team.

The Lions were able to hand Minnesota a loss on their home field earlier this season, but that was about as bad as the Vikings have played. They turned it over 3 times, including two early giveaways to start the 2nd half that turned into 10-points for Detroit. The Minnesota defense held the Lions to just 251 yards and I see now reason why the Vikings won’t be able to shutdown Stafford and company again this time around.

Another key here is that Minnesota’s offense has improved dramatically since the first month of the season, as Case Keenum is playing as well any QB in the league right now. At the same time, the Lions defense has regressed. Not only did they give up 24 points to two horrible offenses in the Browns and Bears, they allowed each of those teams to rush for over 200 yards.

Vikings are a ridiculous 30-13 ATS in their last 43 games overall. They are also 22-9 ATS in their last 31 when playing on 6 or less days of rest and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games played inside a dome.