The #5 LSU Tigers (4-0) host the Ole Miss Rebels (3-1) on Saturday night in an SEC West matchup. Kickoff is set for 9:00 PM EST at Tiger Stadium and the game will be available on ESPN.
Taking a look at the Week 5 college football odds, LSU opened as a 13.5-point home favorite earlier this week. That line has changed slightly after early betting, as the Tigers are currently listed at -12. The total for the game is sitting at 59.5 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: LSU vs Ole Miss
Ole Miss rebounded after a tough loss against Alabama in Week 3, beating Kent State 38-17 at home to improve to 3-1 on the season. The Rebels were tied 7-7 at the half before kicking it into high gear in the third quarter, outscoring the Golden Flashes 31-10 in the second half. QB Jordan Ta’amu has been outstanding so far this season, throwing for 1,359 yards and ten touchdowns in just four games. Ta’amu has led the way for a passing attack that is averaging a whopping 347.5 yards per game through the air (10th overall). The Rebels haven’t been quite as impressive on the ground, averaging 175.2 yards per game (69th). Overall, Ole Miss has been averaging a solid 42 points per game on offense (21st overall).
The Rebels have been absolutely horrific on defense, allowing opponents to average 36.8 points per game (112th overall). They have also allowed a ridiculous 502.8 yards per game of total offense, which is 120th overall in the FBS. Ole Miss has especially struggled against the pass, allowing 314.5 yards per game through the air (121st).
LSU survived a bit of a scare from Louisiana Tech last weekend, pulling away from the Bulldogs in the 4th quarter before eventually winning 38-21. The Tigers were only up by a field goal about halfway through the final quarter until two late touchdowns helped them put the game out of reach. QB Joe Burrow has completed less than 50% of his passing attempts while throwing for 731 yards and three touchdowns over his first four games. LSU currently has the 106th best offense in the FBS, averaging 182.8 yards per game through the air. The Tigers have been slightly better on the ground, averaging 169.8 yards per game on the ground (74th). Overall, they have scored an average of 31 points per game, which is currently tied for 65th overall.
The Tigers have looked fantastic defensively, as they are only giving up an average of 14.8 points per game to opponents (15th). They have also been limiting opponents to just 91.2 yards per game on the ground (10th) and 240.0 yards through the air.
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: LSU -12
This should be an exciting game between two conference rivals that have a lot to play for. The Tigers desperately want to improve to 5-0 and keep their hopes alive for the College Football Playoff. Ole Miss is still trying to recover from an embarrassing loss against Alabama and will really want to make sure they show up ready to play against another Top 5 ranked opponent. While I think this game will stay pretty close for a couple of quarters, the Rebels dreadful defense really concerns me. Although the thrashing by the Crimson Tide may have certainly inflated their points allowed per game average, Ole Miss also struggled defensively against Southern Illinois, giving up 40+ points in that game as well. LSU doesn’t exactly have the most dynamic offense, but they have put up 30+ points in three out of their four games so far.
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Ole Miss is just 4-10-1 ATS over their past fifteen conference games, while LSU is an impressive 7-0 ATS over their last seven conference games. The Tigers are also 8-3 ATS in their last eleven games overall and 4-2 ATS in their past six home games.
The Rebels are also only 7-15-1 ATS over their past 23 games overall while also going 6-11-2 ATS in their past nineteen games on the road. I just don’t trust the Ole Miss defense enough to think that they can provide enough stops to give their offense a fighting chance at staying within striking distance. The Tigers aren’t exactly an offensive powerhouse but they can certainly put a big number on the scoreboard against a team that is currently giving up almost 40 points per game to opponents. While the Rebels have performed pretty well on offense, LSU has also looked great defensively – especially against the run where they are limiting opponents to just 2.6 yards per carry. In a game between two above average offenses, I’m usually going to side with the team that has been more consistent defensively. In this case, that is clearly LSU – and it’s not even close. Ultimately, I think the Tigers will win this one by at least two touchdowns, so I’ll lay the points and roll with the home favorite.