The Maryland Terrapins (5-4) travel to Bloomington this weekend to take on the Indiana Hoosiers (4-5) in Big 10 action. Kickoff is set for 12:00 PM EST at Memorial Stadium and the game will be broadcast on the Big 10 Network.
Taking a look at the Week 11 college football odds, Indiana opened as a 2.5-point home favorite earlier this week. That line has shifted by a full point after early betting, as the Hoosiers are currently listed at -3.5. The total for the game is sitting at 55 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Indiana vs Maryland
Maryland is still on the verge of becoming bowl eligible after falling 24-3 against a tough Michigan State team last weekend. The Terps couldn’t get anything going offensively pretty much all game long, as the Spartans gave up just 100 total yards and nine first downs. They were especially impressive on the ground, yielding only 26 yards on 29 carries by Maryland. However, the Terrapins were also missing two of their top offensive players – RB Ty Johnson and WR D.J. Turner. Both remain questionable heading into Week 11, although Johnson seems like the more likely candidate for a return on Saturday. QB Kasim Hill could certainly use Turner as well, since he has only completed 50.6% of his passes for 1,040 yards and nine touchdowns. Overall, Maryland is currently averaging just 28.4 points per game (71st overall). However, they have been quite successful at moving the ball on the ground so far this season, racking up 221.8 rushing yards per game (27th overall).
Things have looked above average on the other side of the ball, as the Terps are currently allowing opponents to score an average of 24.4 points per game (49th overall). Maryland has been especially good defending against the pass, giving up an average of just 175.0 yards per game through the air (13th overall).
Indiana had a much needed bye week in Week 10 after losing four consecutive games to drop to 4-5 on the season overall. The Hoosiers kept things close with Minnesota their last time out before eventually falling 38-31. It was the second straight “moral victory” for Indiana, as they also played quite well against a heavily favored Penn State squad back in Week 8. QB Payton Ramsey is having a pretty good year, throwing for 2,092 and 15 touchdowns in just nine games. However, he has struggled with accuracy and has already been picked off ten times. Ramsey has had a lot of help from RB Stevie Scott, who has rushed for 791 yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 5.0 yards per carry. As a whole, the offense is scoring an average of 26.9 points per game (83rd overall).
On the other side of the ball, the Hoosiers are currently allowing to score an average of 29.8 points per game (82nd overall). They are well below average against the pass but have been at least semi-decent against the run, giving up 162.0 yards per game on the ground (67th overall).
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: Maryland +3.5
This is shaping up to be a game that could conceivable go either way, as these teams appear to be very well matched. While Indiana has lost for games straight, they have been at least semi-competitive over the last several weeks. Maryland has also been struggling but they are still above .500 overall and have a ton to play for. I think that’s why I’m going to give the edge to the Terps in this matchup, despite having to play on the road. They still need one more win to become bowl eligible and this is likely their best chance to get it done due to a tough upcoming schedule that includes games against Michigan and Purdue.
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The Hoosiers are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a loss. They are also only 1-4 ATS over their last five games in November and 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 conference games. Maryland is a very solid 4-0 ATS following an against the spread loss the previous week. They are also 13-3 ATS in their last sixteen games following a double-digit home loss.
Maryland is also the much stronger team defensively, as they are currently giving up over five points less per game than Indiana. They have also scored more than 1.5 points more per game than the Hoosiers have. For me, it basically all boils down to the fact that I’m also getting over a field goal for free for taking the team with a better record, has more to play for, and has been better on both sides of the ball. Give me the Terrapins to cover on the road – they could easily win outright.