The UMass Minutemen (1-7) welcome the Liberty Flames (5-3) to Hadley this weekend for showdown between two Independent programs. Kickoff is set for 12:00 PM EST on November 2nd at McGuirk Stadium and the game will be televised on the New England Sports Network (NESN).
Taking a look at the Week 10 college football odds, UMass opened as a 21.5-point home underdog earlier this week. The spread has moved up by a full point after early betting, as the Minutemen are currently available at +22.5. The total for the game is sitting at 68 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: UMass vs Liberty
Liberty couldn’t find a way to win their sixth straight game last weekend, falling 44-34 on the road against Rutgers to drop to 5-3 on the season overall. The Flames jumped out to a 14-7 lead in the first quarter but couldn’t hold on down the stretch, giving up 23 points over the final 30 minutes en route to a double-digit loss. QB Stephen Calvert went 17/31 for 244 passing yards and a touchdown while RB Joshua Mack rumbled for 109 yards and two touchdowns on 11 carries. Antonio Gandy-Golden was on the receiving end of the only passing touchdown for the offense, finding the end zone on one of his five catches for 68 yards. As a whole, Liberty generated well over 400 total yards of offense and scored four touchdowns despite coming up short on the scoreboard.
The Flames had a rough outing on the other side of the ball against Rutgers, giving up almost 500 total yards of offense and five touchdowns. Liberty really struggled to contain Scarlet Knights RB Isaih Pacheco, as he racked up 107 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries.
UMass has now lost seven out of their first eight games this year after a 56-35 home loss against Connecticut last weekend. The Minutemen gave up five touchdowns in the first half alone and couldn’t find a way to pull off a comeback over the final two quarters. QB Andrew Brito went 20/40 for 239 passing yards and two touchdowns but also got picked off once as well. RB Bilal Ally was a beast on the ground, rushing for 159 yards and two touchdowns on a team-high 25 carries. Jermaine Johnson also found the end zone, hitting pay-dirt on one of his four catches for 92 yards. Overall, UMass gained just under 450 total yards of offense and scored five touchdowns despite the loss.
The Minutemen were terrible defensively against Connecticut, giving up around 550 total yards of offense and eight touchdowns. Massachusetts got absolutely torched on the ground by Huskies RB Kevin Mensah, as the scored a career-high five touchdowns and rushed for 164 yards on 19 carries.
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: OVER 68
While Liberty should be able to win this game outright fairly easily, I’m not really all that excited about laying over three full touchdowns in order to take the Flames against the spread. Of course, there is also no way that I feel comfortable with taking UMass to cover the spread either, as they are a horrendous 1-7 ATS through their first eight games of the season. If forced to pick a side in this matchup between two Independent programs, I would likely lean slightly towards Liberty despite the fact they are on the road here in Week 10. Still, the number looks pretty efficient to me overall so I will probably stay away from rolling the dice with either school. However, I do think the OVER on 68 total points scored offers at least somewhat decent value, as the Minutemen have given up 169 total points in just their last three games combined.
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It is also important to note that the total has gone OVER in five out of Massachusetts’ last six games overall. The OVER has also come through in three out of their last four home games as well. The Flames have also really been firing on all cylinders offensively as of late, putting up 93 total points in only their last two games combined. I’ll avoid guessing against an efficient spread in favor of the OVER on 68 total points in what should be another blowout loss for UMass.