This Wednesday the Miami (OH) RedHawks will play host to the Bowling Green Falcons. Kickoff is set for 8:00 EST at Yager Stadium and will be televised on ESPNU.

Oddsmakers currently have the RedHawks listed as a 18.5-point home favorite with the total set at 51.5-points.

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Vegas Game Preview & Betting Odds: Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green

Bowling Green Falcons (3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS)

The Falcons come into this one off a 35-6 blowout win and cover as a mere 4-point home favorite against Akron. It improved Bowling Green to 2-3 in MAC play and kept alive their slim hopes of becoming bowl eligible. However, for that to happen the Falcons would need to win out, which seems unlikely, as they figure to be big dogs in each of their last 3 games.

That’s not to say Bowling Green isn’t capable of pulling off an upset. The Falcons have one of the biggest upsets in conference play, as they beat Toledo 20-7 as a massive 27-point home dog back in October. However, that does seem like a bit of an outlier given their three conference have come by 42 at Kent State, by 18 at home to Central Michigan and by 39 at Western Michigan.

Miami RedHawks (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS)

The RedHawks come into this one having won three straight, none bigger than last week’s 24-21 upset win as a 7-point dog at Ohio. That victory put Miami in the driver’s seat to reach the MAC title game. They now have a 1-game lead on the Bobcats with 3 to play, which is basically a 2-game lead when you factor in they own the head-to-head tiebreaker.

All the RedHawks need to do is win two of their final three and one of those is as close to a guarantee win as it gets against Akron. A win here and Miami can wrap up the division next week against the Zips and rest up in their finale at Ball State if they so choose.

Matchup History

Last year the Redhawks defeated Bowling Green 38-23 on the road, covering in the process as a 6.5-point favorite. However, the previous year the Falcons won 37-29 at Miami as a 17-point dog. RedHawks have not won back-to-back games over Bowling Green since beating them in both 2007 and 2008. The road team has won each of the last 4 and 8 of 9 overall.

Free NCAAF Pick & Betting Predictions: Bowling Green +18.5

My early lean here would be take the points with the Falcons. I fully expect Miami (OH) to win this game, I just think because everyone knows the RedHawks need to win and the public wanting nothing to do with Bowling Green, the value is with the Falcons. All of the pressure is on Miami in this one and that’s not always an easy thing to deal with.

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You also have to keep in mind the RedHawks are coming off the biggest win of their season last week at Ohio. It wouldn’t be a shock at all to see them come out a bit flat in this one.

Another thing to note is that Bowling Green was off last week. The Falcons have not played since Nov. 2nd, so they have had ample time to regroup and prepare for this game. Even though it’s a long shot, Bowling Green should play their hearts out to keep those bowl hopes alive.

You also can’t ignore the history of this series and how much the home team has struggled. The road team has won outright in each of the last 4 meetings and 8 of 9 overall. Miami hasn’t beat Bowling Green on their home field since 2007.

Another thing to factor here is the RedHawks don’t exactly have a great offense. They have scored 27 or fewer in each of their last 4 games. With temps expected to be below freezing, both offenses could struggle to score and that makes the 18.5-points we are getting with Bowling Green that much more valuable. Give me the Falcons +18.5!