This Tuesday the Buffalo Bulls (7-1) will host the Miami, OH RedHawks (3-5). Kickoff is set for 8:00 EST at UB Stadium and will be televised on ESPN2.
Oddsmakers currently have the Bulls listed as a 7-point home favorite with the total set 49.5 points. Click here for a full look at the Week 10 odds and for more links to our individual game previews.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Miami, OH vs Buffalo
Last time out the RedHawks suffered a crushing 31-30 double-overtime loss at Army. Miami elected to go for two instead of kicking the extra point and failed to convert. Tough loss to swallow, but the RedHawks have to happy with how they rallied from 14 down in the 4th quarter to force overtime. That’s now 5 straight covers for Miami, who are getting ready for a massive three-game stretch against Buffalo, Ohio and Northern Illinois.
The Bulls enter on a 3-game winning streak. Most recently they went on the road and laid it on Toledo 31-17 as a 3-point dog. Buffalo has been a covering machine, as they have beat the spread in 6 of their last 7 games. The Bulls are the frontrunners in the MAC East at 4-0, but both Miami and Ohio are sitting at 3-1, just 1-game back.
The RedHawks have won each of the last two meetings. They won 35-24 at Buffalo as a 10-point favorite in 2016 and 24-14 as a slim 3-point home favorite a year ago. Prior to that the Bulls had won 4 straight and 6 of 8 overall.
NCAA Football Free Betting Predictions & Pick: Miami +7
My early lean here would be to grab the points with the RedHawks. I think a lot of people have been on this Buffalo team early on and the Bulls have rewarded them with a 6-1 ATS stretch, including three straight covers. Most will overlook the fact that Miami has covered 5 straight and just assume this 3-5 team won’t be able to keep it within a touchdown on the road against the Bulls.
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I just don’t think there’s a whole lot that separates these two teams in terms of actual talent on the field. Buffalo is averaging 31.0 ppg in MAC play, while allowing just 18.7. Miami is averaging 37.2 ppg and giving up just 21.5. I know you can’t read too much into common opponents, but it is worth noting that the RedHawks lost to Army in double-overtime, while Buffalo lost 42-13 at home to the Black Knights. The Bulls also only beat Akron 24-6 at home, while Miami won 41-17 on the road against the Zips.
Both teams have big time playmakers at quarterback. The Redhawks have senior Gus Ragland, who has completed 60.6% of his attempts with a 14-3 TD-INT ration. Buffalo has junior Tyree Jackson, who despite a mere 56.6% completion rate, has a 20-8 TD-INT ratio.
Defensively both teams are really good, but strictly based off numbers, the Bulls hold a slight edge. Miami is 38th in the country (350 ypg) and Buffalo is 26th (331). However, both teams are giving up an identical 4.9 yards/play.
I would have this game listed as a pick’em on a neutral field, which means both teams would be around a 3 to 3.5 point home favorite. Not only is Miami showing great value at this price, but I wouldn’t be shocked at all if they won this game outright. The public is all over the Bulls, so there’s a chance you might be able to get 7.5 before kickoff. Give me the RedHawks +7!