The Michigan State Spartans (4-5) head to “The Big House” this weekend for a BIG 10 East showdown with the #14 overall Michigan Wolverines (7-2). Kickoff is set for 12:00 PM EST on November 16th at Michigan Stadium and the game will be nationally televised on FOX.
Taking a look at the Week 12 college football odds, Michigan opened as a 13.5-point home favorite earlier this week. The spread hasn’t moved at all after early betting, as the Wolverines are currently available at -13.5. The total for the game is sitting at 44 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Michigan vs Michigan State
Michigan State lost their fourth consecutive game last weekend, falling 37-34 at home against Illinois to drop back below the .500 mark on the season overall. The Spartans held a massive 31-10 lead heading into the fourth quarter but completely collapsed down the stretch, getting outscored 27-3 over the final 15 minutes of the game. QB Brian Lewerke certainly wasn’t at his best, going 19/36 for 251 passing yards and a touchdown but also throwing three costly interceptions as well. RB Elijah Collins was a beast on the ground, racking up 170 rushing yards and two touchdowns on a game-high 28 carries. Cody White also chipped in, hauling in seven receptions for 128 passing yards. Overall, Michigan State generated well over 500 total yards and scored four touchdowns on offense despite coming up just short on the scoreboard.
The Spartans had a rough outing on the other side of the ball against Illinois, giving up over 400 total yards of offense and four touchdowns. Michigan State got absolutely torched by Fighting Illini WR Josh Imatorbhebhe, as he exploded for 178 receiving yards and two touchdowns on just four catches.
Michigan rolled over Maryland on the road their last time outing, crushing the Terrapins 38-7 to improve to 7-2 on the season overall. The Wolverines scored 14 unanswered points in the first quarter and never looked back, giving up only a single touchdown the entire game. QB Shea Patterson went 13/22 for 151 passing yards and a touchdown through the air while RB Hassan Haskins rumbled for 60 yards and a score on a team-high 13 carries on the ground. Nico Collins led the way for the receiving corps, making two catches for 65 yards. As a whole, Michigan gained well over 300 total yards and found the end zone four times on offense.
The Wolverines were outstanding defensively against Maryland, surrendering just over 200 total yards of offense and only one touchdown. Michigan was especially strong defending against the pass, as they allowed only 104 yards through the air and also recorded an interception.
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: OVER 44
While Michigan should cruise to yet another Paul Bunyan Trophy victory on Saturday afternoon, I’m not really seeing a ton of value with either side against the spread. I would probably lean towards laying the 13.5 points and rolling with the home favorite, as Michigan State is a brutal 2-7 against the spread through their first nine games this season – including going just 1-4 ATS over their last five outings on the road. However, Michigan is a very average 5-4 ATS through their first nine games, which is hardly anything to get excited about. The Wolverines have also really struggled against the spread in this particular rivalry as of late, failing to cover the number in nine out of the last ten meetings between these two teams. Ultimately, I will probably avoid throwing darts against what looks to be a pretty efficient spread in favor of the OVER on 44 total points.
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Even though I don’t think this game will turn into a full-blow shootout by any means, I do feel as if both teams should combine for at least 45 total points. Michigan State has given up at least 31 points in four out of their last five games, while the Wolverines have allowed at least 25 points in two out of their last four outings overall. Michigan has also really been firing on all cylinders on offense as of late, scoring 83 total points over just their last two games combined. I’m going to avoid both sides against the spread and roll with the OVER on 44 total points instead.