The Michigan Wolverines host Minnesota Golden Gophers this weekend in Big 10 action. Kickoff will be at 7:30 PM EST on Saturday, November 4th from Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Michigan. The game will be televised on FOX.
Michigan enters this game as 15.5 point home favorites. Early betting has shifted the line slightly, as the Wolverines originally opened at -15. The over/under for the game is 41.5 points. Click here for a full list of Week 10 betting odds and links to game previews.
Minnesota vs Michigan Betting Line & Game Preview
The Golden Gophers have lost four out of their past five games after dropping a close game against Iowa last weekend. Minnesota played well defensively but couldn’t figure out a way to solve the Hawkeye defense in a 17-10 defeat. QB Demry Croft continued to struggle, going just 9-29 for 139 yards and no touchdowns. The Golden Gophers have been somewhat better on the ground, averaging 182.2 rushing yards per game. They are led by RB Rodney Smith, who has 600+ rushing yards and two touchdowns. Fortunately for Minnesota, they have looked much better on the other side of the ball while limiting opponents to just 18.8 points per game. They are also allowing an average of only 316.8 total yards per game.
Michigan has looked overwhelmingly average lately, going 2-2 over their past four games. The Wolverines got off to a slow start again last weekend in a match-up with Rutgers before a change at quarterback appeared to spark the offense in the second half. Sophomore QB Brandon Peters replaced John O’Korn in the 2nd quarter and immediately made an impact with a 20 yard touchdown pass to Chris Evans. RB Karan Higdon had another strong afternoon, finishing with 158 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Michigan continues to look exceptionally strong defensively, allowing just 255.5 total yards per game – 4th overall in the entire country.
Free NCAAF Betting Prediction: Minnesota +15.5
I think Minnesota offers a ton of value in this particular match-up. Getting 15.5 points seems like an inflated number to me, especially considering how much Michigan has struggled offensively lately. The Golden Gophers defense is also extremely stingy, ranking inside of the top 30 teams nationwide in pretty much every major defensive category. I know Minnesota will also struggle to put points on the board against one of the best defenses in all of college football, but I still think they should be able to stay within two touchdowns of the Wolverines by the end of the 4th quarter.
Click on the link for more free NCAA football picks against the spread and total.
Minnesota is a solid 7-1-4 ATS over their past 12 road games and 10-3 ATS in their past 13 games following a SU loss. Michigan is 0-4 ATS in their past four home games and just 0-3-1 ATS over their past four games overall. All four of the Golden Gophers losses have been by 14 points or less, which is definitely a trend I expect to continue this weekend. I certainly don’t expect them to win outright, but they have repeatedly proved to me that they can compete with tough teams while playing on the road.
Brandon Peters looked fairly decent last weekend after entering the game in the 2nd quarter – however, he did have the added benefit of playing against a weak Rutgers defense that is currently ranked 69th overall. I think that Minnesota should be able to create a ton of pressure on Saturday night and really expose his relative inexperience. Michigan should ultimately find a way to win this game, especially since it’s taking place in The Big House. However, I am fully expecting Minnesota to grind out a cover while making the Wolverines really earn a close, hard-fought victory.