This Saturday the Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-0) will host the Kansas State Wildcats (2-0). Kickoff is set for 12:00 EST at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville and will be televised on ESPN.
Oddsmakers waited to release a number on this game because of the uncertainty surrounding Mississippi State quarterback Tommy Stevens. Stevens is listed as questionable, but the books have made the Bulldogs a 8-point favorite with a total of 52.
Click here for a full look at the Week 3 NCAAF odds and for more links to our game previews.
Vegas Odds & Betting Preview: Mississippi State vs Kansas State
Kansas State Wildcats
The Wildcats haven’t enjoyed much success without Bill Snyder as their head coach, but are hoping that is about to change under Chris Klieman. It’s hard to find a lot of negatives with Kansas State’s first two victories. The Wildcats rolled Nicholls State 49-14 as a 20.5-point favorite and followed that up with a 52-0 win as a 24.5-point favorite at home against Bowling Green.
For those that don’t know, Klieman was previously the head coach at FCS-powerhouse North Dakota State. Klieman won 4 FCS National Championships in his 5 years as the head coach of the Bison.
Offensively the Wildcats have imposed their will on the ground. Kansas State rushed for 361 yards on 58 attempts against Nicholls St and another 333 yards on 58 attempts against Bowling Green. Defensively they have given up next to nothing, as they come in allowing just 208 yards/game.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
There were a lot of people interested to see how Mississippi State would look in year under head coach Joe Moorhead after losing a lot from last year’s squad. Bulldogs not only lost dynamic quarterback Nick Fitzgerald (3rd all-time passer, 2nd all-time rusher), but they also had to replace a ton of talent on the defensive side of the ball (three 1st round NFL draft picks).
Mississippi State has won both of their games, but they only beat Lafayette 38-28 as a 18.5-point favorite. They did cover as a 16-point favorite in a 38-15 win over Southern Miss in Week 2, but only outgained the Eagles 386 to 344.
Stevens, who transferred from Penn State, has been impressive when he’s been on the field. He did leave in the 2nd quarter against Bowling Green and did not return. Moorehead is saying he’s day-to-day, but based on the line I would think he’s going to play.
These two played at Kansas State last year and the Bulldogs won 31-10 as a 8-point favorite. It was every bit as lopsided as the score. Mississippi State had a 538 to 213 edge in total yards and a 24-15 advantage in first downs.
College Football Free Pick & Predictions: Kansas State +8
My early lean here would be to take the points with the Wildcats. I just think there’s some value at this price, as I would probably have the line close to a pick’em on a neutral site, which means I would have the Bulldogs around a 3.5 to 4-point home favorite.
Click on the link for more free NCAA football picks from our experts on staff.
It’s not a surprise that Mississippi State is a bit overvalued early on in 2019. You got a lot of SEC bias and while they haven’t looked great in their first two games, people will only focus on the outcomes.
Kansas State on the other hand is a team that I feel is flying under the radar. Last time Snyder left the program it went to shit and the Wildcats were just 5-7 last year. I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from the offense and the defense is a lot better than people think.
I also like the revenge angle for the Wildcats. This is a game they definitely had circled on the schedule and they got nothing to look ahead to with a bye week on deck. Mississippi State on the other hand has their SEC opener on deck with Kentucky coming to down in Week 4.
Lastly, we have a great system backing a play on Kansas State. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points are 43-15 (74%) ATS after scoring 42 points or more in each of their last 2 games. Give me the Wildcats +8!