Two SEC West rivals will collide this Saturday when the Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-0) host the LSU Tigers (2-0). Kickoff is set for 7:00 EST at Davis Wade Stadium and will be televised on ESPN.
Taking a look at our Week 3 betting odds, the books have the Tigers listed as a 7-point road favorite with the total at 51.5-points.
LSU vs Mississippi State Vegas Game Odds & Betting Preview
After a convincing 27-0 win over BYU as a 14-point favorite on a neutral field in their opener, LSU cruised to a 45-10 win over UT-Chattanooga. Though they did come up short at covering the spread as they were laying 36-points.
Mississippi State has had quite a start of their own. The Bulldogs defeated Charleston Southern 49-0 in their opener as a mere 21.5-point favorite. They then went on the road against a talented Louisiana Tech team and won 57-21 as a 10.5-point favorite.
Last year the Tigers held on for a 23-20 win at home over Mississippi State as a 13-point favorite. LSU led 20-0 and 23-3 in that contest, but were shutout in the 2nd as the Bulldogs rally fell short. The Bulldogs are just 1-16 all-time against the Tigers.
Free College Football Betting Predictions Against the Total: UNDER 51.5
If I had to take a side here, I would take the touchdown with the Bulldogs. However, I believe the real value here is with the UNDER at 51.5 points. I just don’t see either of these teams being able to generate a lot of offense against these two defenses.
Click here for more free NCAAF picks from our expert handicappers.
Early on the Bulldogs rank 6th in the country in yards allowed, giving up just 174 ypg. LSU is 5th only surrendering 169 ypg. I know theses ranking can change a ton from one week to the next early in the season. However, I believe the tape on these two leaves little to doubt.
LSU held BYU to a mere 97 yards and 6 first downs in their opener. I know the Cougars haven’t looked great early offensively, but any time you hold a team under 100 yards that’s saying something. Mississippi State also accomplished the feat, as they held Charleston Southern to a whopping 33 yards and 2 first downs in their opener.
The Tigers allowed 242 yards to Chattanooga, but led 42-3 and could have limited them to less if they were actually concerned about losing to an FCS program. The Bulldogs really proved to me they were for real when they shutdown a high-powered Louisiana Tech offense. Had it not been for an interceptions that set LA Tech up for a 2-yard TD drive, that game would have been 57-8 going into the 4th quarter.
It’s no surprise that LSU is playing at an elite level on defense given the talent they have and the great Dave Aranda at defensive coordinator. As long as he’s around and the Tigers keep bringing in 5* players, they will be dominant on that side of the ball.
You could chalk up Mississippi State’s impressive start on defense to a weak schedule. What people need to realize is that while they don’t have the same talent, they are very-well coached by Dan Mullen. This year he added in one of the most respected defensive coordinator in the game in Todd Grantham. That addition of Grantham is why I don’t think this is a fluke.
Despite the big names on offense that include a couple of Heisman hopefuls on each team, I don’t see these defenses giving up a lot of big plays. Both teams are going to have to grind it out just to get first downs, let along convert touchdowns instead of field goals in the red-zone.