The Ole Miss Rebels (5-6) host the #21 overall Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-4) on Thanksgiving in the 115th Egg Bowl. Kickoff is set for 7:30 PM EST at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium and the game will be broadcast on ESPN.

Taking a look at the Week 13 college football odds, Mississippi State opened as a 9-point road favorite earlier this week. That line has changed substantially after early betting, as the Bulldogs are currently listed at -10.5. The total for the game is sitting at 58 points.

Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Ole Miss vs Mississippi State

Mississippi State has now won three out of their last four games after crushing Arkansas 52-6 last weekend to improve to 7-4 overall. The Bulldogs were dominant on both sides of the ball, racking up 475 yards of total offense while giving up just 219 yards defensively. QB Nick Fitzgerald was extremely efficient, going 9-14 for 127 yards and four touchdowns. Fitzgerald was also very effective on the ground, rushing for 85 yards and a touchdown. He certainly had a ton of help from RB Aeris Williams, who had two receiving touchdowns and 104 yards rushing on only 15 carries. There is little doubt that Mississippi State will be highly motivated for this matchup after getting upset 31-28 at home by the Rebels in the 114th Egg Bowl. Overall, the offense is currently averaging 28.5 points per game (68th overall).

The Bulldogs have been fantastic on the other side of the ball all year long, giving up an average of just 12.8 points per game (2nd overall). They are doing a great job against the run through 11 games, allowing only 110.4 yards per game on the ground (113th overall). Mississippi State has been even better shutting down opponents through the air, limiting teams to 165.3 passing yards per game (8th overall).

Ole Miss dropped back below .500 on the season after a tough 36-29 overtime loss to Vanderbilt last weekend. The offense certainly did their part against the Commodores, posting a very impressive 578 total yards. QB Jordan Ta’amu racked up 457 passing yards and two touchdowns on 52 attempts. Ta’amu really found a groove with two receivers in Week 12, as AJ Brown and Da’Markus Lodge combined for a ridiculous 329 yards and two touchdowns. RB Isaiah Woullard led the way on the ground, rushing for 107 yards on 16 carries. As a whole, Ole Miss is currently averaging a very respectable 36.7 points per game (22nd overall) on 539.7 yards of total offense (5th overall).

The Rebels have played extremely poorly on the other side of the ball, giving up an average of 36.3 points per game (113th overall). They have been especially bad against the run, surrendering an average of 213.8 yards on the ground per game (113th overall).

NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: Mississippi State -10.5

I’ve gone back and forth on this matchup a few times, as I wish I had locked in the Bulldogs when they opened at -9 earlier in the week. However, I simply don’t have any faith in the Rebels dreadful defense against a more than capable Mississippi State offense. The only silver lining for Ole Miss in what has really been a disappointing season overall has been their outstanding play on offense. Jordan Ta’amu and Co. have been a threat to score pretty much every time they take the field. However, the Bulldogs have given up the second-fewest points per game in the entire country, so the Ta’amu and the rest of the offense will certainly have their work cut out for them on Thursday.

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The Rebels are only 1-6 ATS in their last seven games on grass and 1-4 ATS in their last four home games. They are also a dreadful 0-5 ATS over their last five games against teams with a winning record and just 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall. Mississippi State is a solid 7-4 ATS in 11 games this season and 4-2 ATS over their last six games overall.

It is also important to note how badly the Bulldogs will want to get revenge for a poor showing at home the last time these two state-rivals met. Ole Miss hasn’t faced a defense this tough all year long, while Mississippi State should have no problem scoring at will on the other side of the ball. Despite wishing I got in at -9, I’m still fine laying the 10.5 points and rolling with the road favorite to cover the spread.