The Tennessee Volunteers (5-5) host the Missouri Tigers (6-4) on Saturday afternoon in SEC action. Kickoff is set for 3:30 PM EST at Neyland Stadium and the game will be broadcast on CBS.
Taking a look at the Week 12 college football odds, Missouri opened as a 5-point road favorite earlier this week. That line has shifted by half a point after early betting, as the Tigers are currently listed at -5.5. The total for the game is sitting at 56 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Tennessee vs Missouri
Mizzou moved to 6-4 on the season last weekend after edging Vanderbilt 33-28 in a hard fought battle at home. It was the second consecutive win for the Tigers, as they crushed #13 Florida 38-17 back in Week 10 before becoming bowl eligible after defeating the Commodores on Saturday. QB Drew Lock has been fantastic so far this season, throwing for 2,647 yards and 21 touchdowns in just ten games. He has certainly had a ton of help from the dynamic rushing duo of Larry Rountree III and Damarea Crockett, who have combined for 1,457 yards and 16 touchdowns. As a whole, Missouri is currently averaging an impressive 35.5 points per game on 473.4 yards of total offense. They have really been strong on the ground, gaining an average of 195.9 rushing yards per game (44th).
The Tigers have been below average on the other side of the ball, allowing opponents to score 27.6 points per game (70th overall). However, they have been quite good against the run through ten games, giving up an average of just 134.1 yards per game on the ground (30th overall).
Tennessee upset #17 overall Kentucky 24-7 last weekend to get back to .500 on the season and move within one victory of becoming bowl eligible. It has been a solid two weeks for the Volunteers, as they have now won two games in a row while outscoring their opponents 38-10 in that span. QB Jarrett Guarantano has played well, passing for 1,768 yards and 11 touchdowns. The tandem of Tim Jordan and Ty Chandler lead the way on the ground, rushing for a combined 937 yards and four touchdowns. Overall, Tennessee is currently averaging just 24.3 points per game on 342 total yards of offense so far this season.
On the other side of the ball, the Volunteers are currently giving up an average of 24.7 points per game (50th overall). They have been pretty solid against the pass, allowing opponents to average just 205.1 yards per game through the air (40th overall).
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: Missouri -5.5
It seems as if a lot of bettors are siding with Tennessee against the spread in this particular matchup, as the Vols need to win one of their final two games to clinch a spot in a bowl game this year. However, I’m not sold that their offense can keep pace against a high-flying Mizzou offense here in Week 12. Tennessee has scored 24 points or less in seven out of their last eight games. While they have been quite solid defensively as of late, they still allowed Alabama, West Virginia and Florida to score 40+ points. While the Tigers are certainly not as good as any of those schools, they still are more than capable of scoring at least 30 in this matchup. Even if Tennessee manages to score 24 points, they still will likely lose by 6-10 points if Missouri can play at least an average game on offense.
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While Missouri is just 5-5 ATS overall so far this season, they are a solid 4-2 ATS in their last six games against Tennessee. The Volunteers are only 1-4 ATS over their last five home games and 6-12 in their last 18 games overall. Both of these teams have been going under totals a lot lately, as the total has gone under in four out of the last five Tigers games and in four out of the last six Tennessee games.
One last thing to keep in this mind in this matchup is how well the favorite has done over the last several meetings between these two teams – 4-1 ATS overall. Missouri has also won by double-digits in four out of their six victories this season, including embarrassing #13 overall Florida by 20+ points several weeks ago. All in all, the Tigers should find a way to grind out a cover on the road this weekend – I’m laying the 5.5 points and taking the favorite.