The Vanderbilt Commodores will fight to keep their bowl hopes alive as they host the Missouri Tigers. Kickoff is at 7:30 EST on Saturday, November 18 at Vanderbilt Stadium in Nashville. Fans can watch the game on the SEC Network.

The Tigers enter the game as 8.5-point favorites on the road. The over/under for the game is set at 67 points. Click here to see a full list of Week 12 betting odds and links to game previews.

Missouri vs Vanderbilt Game Betting Preview & Vegas Odds

Vanderbilt remains winless in SEC play, but at 4-6 overall, the Commodores still have a chance to play in a bowl game if they can win their final two games. Vandy’s opponents, Missouri and Tennessee, have combined for just two conference wins this season, so it’s not that farfetched that the Commodores can pull it off. However, Vanderbilt has rarely been competitive in SEC games this season.

Missouri, on the other hand, has won four games in a row, including their last two SEC games against Florida and Tennessee. That winning streak has made the Tigers 5-5 on the season and just one win away from qualifying for a bowl. However, Missouri will have to win one of those games on the road, where the Tigers are just 1-2 this season.

College Football Free Pick Against the Spread: Missouri -8.5

My early lean in this game is toward Missouri to cover 8.5 points. I question the difficulty of Missouri’s schedule during their four-game winning streak. But I’m not going to question the momentum the Tigers have built up over that time. That momentum should be enough to carry them to victory over another lackluster team like Vanderbilt.

Despite playing good defense early in the season, Vanderbilt has been ripped apart time and time again by SEC teams. The Commodores have given up no less than 34 points in their conference games this season. That’s a scary stat when facing a team like Missouri that has proven capable of putting up big numbers against bad defenses.

Click on the link for more free NCAA football picks against the spread and total.

The Tigers are averaging nearly 55 points per game over their last four games. To be fair, Vanderbilt should be better defensively than at least a couple of those teams, and possibly all of them. But I still don’t believe they can match up against the Missouri offense. The Tigers have a good balance between the run and pass. Also, quarterback Drew Lock has thrown at least three touchdown passes in each of his last six games.

To be fair, the Missouri defense can be vulnerable at times. The Tigers have played well on that side of the ball during their winning streak. But again, they have not faced a high level of competition during that time. That being said, I’m not convinced the Commodores are competent enough offensively to take full advantage of a potentially vulnerable Missouri defense. 

Vandy quarterback Kyle Shurmur is coming off a nightmare performance against Kentucky last week in which he threw four interceptions. Even against some of the weaker defenses in the SEC, Shurmur has struggled with his accuracy, making it tough to sustain drives. I don’t expect the Commodores to be completely futile against the Missouri defense. But I don’t think they’ll be able to keep up if the Vanderbilt defense struggles and this game turns into a shootout.

I’m not completely sold on Missouri being anything more than an average team that’s been able to take advantage of a weak schedule. But I gave up believing in Vanderbilt a long time ago. I’ll lean heavily toward the Tigers in this game, expecting them to win by two or three touchdowns.