The MS State Bulldogs (4-5) host the #4 overall Alabama Crimson Tide (8-1) this weekend for an SEC West clash from Starkville, Mississippi. Kickoff is set for 12:00 PM EST on November 16th at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field and the game will be televised on ESPN.

Taking a look at the Week 12 college football odds, Alabama opened as a 20.5-point road favorite earlier this week. The spread has come down by three full points after early betting, as the Crimson Tide are currently available at -17.5. The total for the game is sitting at 61 points.

Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: MS State vs Alabama

Alabama lost their first game of the season last weekend, falling 46-41 at home against LSU to drop to 8-1 overall. The Crimson Tide fell behind 33-13 in the first half and never fully recovered despite outscoring the Tigers 28-13 over the final two quarters of the game. QB Tua Tagovailoa went 21/40 for 418 passing yards and four touchdowns through the air but was definitely limited on the ground in his first start after suffering a severe high ankle sprain. RB Najee Harris picked up the slack, racking up 146 rushing yards and a touchdown on a team-high 19 carries. WR Devonta Smith was fantastic, torching the Tigers secondary for 213 yards and two touchdowns on seven catches. Overall, Alabama generated almost 550 total yards of offense and scored five touchdowns despite coming up just short on the scoreboard.

The Crimson Tide had a brutal outing on the other side of the ball against LSU, surrendering almost 600 total yards of offense and six touchdowns. Alabama had no answer for Tigers RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, as he exploded for 180 all-purpose yards and four touchdowns.

MS State snapped a four game losing streak their last time out, crushing Arkansas 54-24 on the road to move to 4-5 on the season overall. The Bulldogs scored five touchdowns in the first half alone and never looked back, cruising to an easy double-digit victory. QB Tommy Stevens went 12/18 for 172 passing yards and two touchdowns through the air while also adding 74 rushing yards on the ground as well. RB Kylin Hill was electric, rumbling for 234 rushing yards and three touchdowns on a team-high 21 carries. Nick Gibson also found the end zone on one of his 12 carries for 129 rushing yards. Deddrick Thomas led the way for the receiving corps, hauling in two catches for 59 yards. As a whole, MS State gained almost 650 total yards and scored six touchdowns on offense against a shell-shocked Razorbacks defense.

The Bulldogs were fairly average defensively against Arkansas, surrendering almost 300 total yards of offense and three touchdowns. However, Mississippi State was fantastic against the pass, forcing an interception and only allowing 101 yards through the air.

NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: Alabama -17.5

I think that the Crimson Tide offer pretty decent value against the spread in this SEC West clash, as they should be highly motivated after coming up short at home against LSU last weekend. Alabama really has to dominant teams from here on out if they want to lock up a spot in the College Football Playoff, so I’m not too worried about an emotional letdown here in Week 12 after such a tough loss. The Crimson Tide have really been firing on all cylinders on offense lately as well, scoring 99 total points over just their last two outings. They should find a way to rebound on defense on Saturday afternoon against a Bulldogs squad that only managed to score 13 points at home against LSU back in mid-October.

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Alabama has also dominated this matchup against the spread as of late, covering the number in two out of the last three meetings between these SEC West rivals overall. The Crimson Tide are also a perfect 10-0 outright over their last ten games against MS State as well. On the other side, the Bulldogs are a brutal 1-4 against the spread over their last five outings overall. They have also gone just 3-6 ATS through their first nine games this year. I’m going to lay the points and roll with the big road favorite on Saturday afternoon in what should be a bounce back spot for Alabama – give me the Crimson Tide to cover!