The Ole Miss Rebels (4-7) travel to Starkville on Thursday for an SEC West showdown with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-6). Kickoff is set for 7:30 PM EST on November 28th at Davis Wade Stadium and the game will be televised on ESPN.

Taking a look at the Week 14 college football odds, Mississippi State opened as a 2.5-point home favorite earlier this week. The spread hasn’t moved at all after early betting, as the Bulldogs are currently available at -2.5. The total for the game is sitting at 58 points.

Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: MS State vs Ole Miss

Ole Miss couldn’t find a way to get past #1 overall LSU their last time out, falling 58-37 at home to drop to 4-7 on the season overall. The Rebels gave up 14 unanswered points in the first quarter and never recovered, coming up three touchdowns short despite a very solid performance on offense. QB John Rhys Plumlee struggled through the air but absolutely torched the Tigers on the ground, rushing for 212 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. Elijah Moore also chipped in, hauling in nine receptions for 143 yards and a touchdown. As a whole, Ole Miss generated over 600 total yards of offense and found the end zone five times despite the loss.

The Rebels had a horrific outing on the other side of the ball against LSU, giving up over 700 total yards of offense and seven touchdowns. Ole Miss had no answer for Tigers WR Ja’Marr Chase, as he exploded for 227 yards and three touchdowns on eight catches.

Mississippi State has now won two out of their last three games after crushing Abilene Christian 45-7 at home last weekend to improve to 5-6 on the season overall. The Bulldogs scored three touchdowns in the first half and cruised to victory over the final two quarters of the game, tacking on an additional 24 points. QB Tommy Stevens went 13/27 for 165 passing yards and two touchdowns through the air while also adding 88 rushing yards and a score on the ground. Kylin Hill was a monster out of the backfield, racking up 153 rushing yards on a team-high 16 carries. Hill also led the way for the receiving corps, making three catches for 84 yards and a touchdown. Overall, Mississippi State gained over 550 total yards of offense and scored six touchdowns against a shell-shocked Wildcats defense.

The Bulldogs also played well defensively against ACU, giving up under 300 total yards of offense and just one touchdown. MS State was especially strong defending against the run, allowing only 29 net rushing yards the entire game.

NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: Ole Miss +2.5

There really doesn’t appear to be all that much separating these two SEC West rivals heading into Week 14, as this matchup could easily go either way. I certainly don’t mind fading this spot entirely, as both the total and the spread look pretty efficient to me overall. If forced to pick a side, I think that I’m leaning just slightly towards taking the points and rolling with the slight road underdog. While the Rebels have won one fewer game outright than MS State has through the first 13 weeks of the regular season, they are also a very respectable 6-4-1 against the spread. The Bulldogs have struggled in that department, covering the number just four times through their first 11 games. Ole Miss has also been fantastic away from home, going 4-1 ATS in five games.

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Analyzing history between mutual conference opponents this year can also be quite helpful, as both schools came up between 21-23 points short against LSU and 28-31 points short against Alabama. However, Ole Miss came up just six points short on the road against #16 overall Auburn while the Bulldogs lost 56-23 to the Tigers at the end of September. The Rebels also fared far better against Texas A&M, losing 24-17. MS State wasn’t nearly as strong, falling 49-30. With Ole Miss performing drastically better against the same opponent, I think I’d much rather take a shot with the 2.5 points in this SEC West clash. Give me the Rebels to cover and possibly even win outright!