The Air Force Falcons (3-1) travel to Annapolis this weekend to face the Navy Midshipmen (2-1) in the opening battle of the fight for the Commander-in-Chief trophy. Kickoff is set for 3:30 PM EST on Saturday, October 5th at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium and the game will be televised on the CBS Sports Network.
Taking a look at the Week 6 college football odds, Navy opened as a 2-point home underdog earlier this week. That spread has shifted by just half a point after early betting, as the Midshipmen are currently listed at +2.5. The total for the game is sitting at 44.5 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Navy vs Air Force
Air Force improved to 3-1 on the season overall last weekend, beating San Jose State 41-24 at home. The Falcons jumped out to a 21-10 lead in the second quarter and never looked back, outscoring the Spartans 20-14 over the final 30 minutes of the game. QB Donald Hammond III was 5/9 for 131 yards and a touchdown through the air while also gaining 25 rushing yards on just four carries. RB Taven Birdow had a monster day on the ground, racking up 124 yards and two touchdowns on a team-high 25 carries. Geraud Sanders led the way for the receiving corps, posting 108 yards and a score despite making just three catches. Overall, Air Force generated well over 500 total yards of offense and scored five rushing touchdowns against a below average San Jose State defense.
The Falcons had a fairly average outing on the others side of the ball in Week 5, giving up over 350 yards of total offense and three touchdowns. Air Force was pretty solid defending against the run, limiting the Spartans to just 99 net rushing yards and a single touchdown on 30 attempts.
Navy lost their first game of the season in Week 5, falling 35-23 on the road against Memphis to drop to 2-1 on the season overall. The Midshipmen actually held a 20-14 lead at the half but couldn’t find a way to hang on down the stretch, giving up 14 unanswered points in the third quarter en route to a double-digit defeat. QB Malcolm Perry was just 6/10 for 82 yards and a touchdown but really had a strong showing on the ground, rushing 25 times for 91 yards and two touchdowns. Ryan Mitchell only made two receptions all game but still recorded 52 receiving yards. As a whole, Navy gained almost 400 total yards of offense and scored three touchdowns.
The Midshipmen certainly weren’t at their best defensively in Week 5, surrendering over 300 total yards of offense and four touchdowns. Navy definitely didn’t have an answer for Tigers QB Brady White, as he threw three touchdowns to three different receivers in the victory.
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: Air Force -2.5
I’m actually somewhat surprised that the Falcons aren’t favored by more than a full field goal in this particular matchup, as I think they are clearly the better team on both sides of the ball. While Navy won their first two games of the regular season, they were only up against Holy Cross and ECU. Things didn’t go quite as smoothly for the Mids in their first meeting with an even somewhat average program, as they lost by double-digits to Memphis last Thursday. Air Force has performed very admirably to start the year, especially considering that they have already had to face Colorado and #16 overall Boise State. Their showing against the Broncos was particularly impressive, as they were only down by four points heading into the fourth quarter before getting outplayed down the stretch.
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Navy has also not fared well at all against the Falcons as of late, going just 1-4 against the spread over their last five meetings. They are also only 1-4 ATS in their last five games against an opponent from the Mountain West Conference. However, it is important to note that they are a very solid 7-1 straight up over their last eight games at home against Air Force. Even so, I still think the Falcons offer the best value in this spot – especially at just -2.5. I’ll happily lay the points in this matchup, as I think the small road favorite should cover with relative ease on Saturday afternoon. Give me Air Force!