This Saturday the No. 9 ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-2) will host the Navy Midshipmen (6-3). Kickoff is set for 3:30 EST at Notre Dame Stadium and will be televised on NBC.
Oddsmakers currently have the Irish listed as a 18-point home favorite with the total set at 63 points. Click here for a full look at our Week 12 betting 12 for all the odds and links to our game previews.
Navy vs Notre Dame Game Predictions & Vegas Betting Preview
The Midshipmen snapped a 3-game skid with a 43-40 win at home over SMU, covering as a slim 1-point favorite. It was quite an entertaining contest, which saw Navy jump out to a 34-11 lead, only for the Mustangs to tie it at 40-40 with just under 4 minutes to play. The Midshipmen answered with a 10-play 78-yard drive that resulted in the game-winning field goal as time expired.
The Fighting Irish were expected to be in a closely contested matchup with No. 7 Miami, but they were outmatched from the start. Notre Dame lost 8-41 on the road to the Hurricanes in a game they were listed as a 3-point favorite. The Irish offense had no answers against the Miami defense, totaling just 261 yards and turned it over 4 times.
Last year Navy snapped a 4-game skid in the series with a 28-27 win on a neutral field as a 7-point home dog. These two teams have played every year since 1997, which the Irish have dominated with a 17-3 record over this period.
Free College Football Predictions & Betting Pick: Navy +18
You can be quite sure how a team will respond to a loss like the one Notre Dame suffered, but more times than not those teams struggle to play up to their potential the next time out. Especially in a situation like this, where the loss for the Irish all but eliminated them from a chance to make the 4-team playoff. Not only do I think it has Navy showing some great value here as a 3-score underdog, but I believe it gives them a legit shot at pulling off the upset.
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While Notre Dame could find it difficult to pick themselves up off the mat, Navy is going to come out guns blazing against a what’s likely to be a Top 10 opponent. Not to mention they will be playing with a ton of confidence after that thrilling win over SMU.
Another thing here is that the Midshipmen are better than they get credit for. Their largest loss all season is by just 10-points at home against a very good UCF team and they were right there down just a field goal with less than 5 minutes to play. They also have a mere 3-point loss at Memphis who is a Top 20 team.
Navy is also a team that’s built to keep games close with their triple-option attack that eats up the clock and limits the opposing teams number of possessions. It’s also a very difficult offense to prepare for and you have to wonder just how motivated the Irish players are going to be in practice this week. If Notre Dame doesn’t come in with the right state of mind, Navy is going to torment that defense from start to finish.
Midshipmen are an impressive 30-18 ATS in their last 48 when listed as an underdog and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 off a home win by 3-points or less. The Irish on the other hand are just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 home games after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games against similar teams to Navy, who are a run first team (average 125 or less passing yards/game). Give me the Midshipmen.