This Friday the South Florida Bulls will host the No. 22 ranked Navy Midshipmen. Kickoff for this AAC matchup is set for 7:00 EST at Raymond James Stadium and will be televised on ESPN2. Oddsmakers have USF as a 8-point favorite with the total set at 63 points. Click here for more Week 9 college previews and betting odds.
Navy vs USF Vegas Odds Preview
The Midshipmen (5-1, 4-0 AAC) come into this one off a solid 42-28 home win over Memphis as a mere 1.5-point favorite. As they do with most teams, Navy had their way on the ground. The Midshipmen rushed for 447 yards and 4 scores in the victory.
The Bulls (6-2, 3-1 AAC) suffered their first conference loss in a 30-46 defeat at Temple. USF’s defense is to blame for that loss. The Bulls gave up 319 rushing yards and over 500 yards of total offense.
Free Pick & Betting Predictions: Navy +8
I think the value here is clearly with the Midshipmen. Navy continues to get no respect from the books. In their last two games, they have beat Houston as a 16-point home dog and Memphis as a by 14 as a 1.5-point favorite. Now they are catching over a touchdown on the road against South Florida team they beat 29-17 last year.
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I expect the Midshipmen to use a very similar game-plan against the Bulls as they did a year ago. Navy dominated the time of possession rushing for 428 yards on 69 attempts. They held the ball for almost 40 minutes in that game.
South Florida just let Temple rush for 319 yards on them last week. They also gave up 478 rushing yards earlier this season against Florida State. They lost both of those games outright and are the only two games where they have allowed more than 27 points. Adding to this is the fact that Navy is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 against teams allowing 200 or more rushing yards/game.
I also think Navy matches up well defensively with the Bulls. While the Midshipmen are vulnerable to big plays through the air, they are very good against the run. Navy is only giving up 3.8 yards/carry against teams who average around 4.3 yards/carry. South Florida comes in 21st in total offense, but most of that is from their running game. The Bulls have the 12th ranked rushing attack at 255.5 ypg, compared to the 64th ranked passing attack.
While the Bulls have failed to cover their last two games, I think they are still overvalued. South Florida opened the season 5-1 ATS and that was after going an impressive 10-3 ATS last year. When a team goes 15-4 ATS in a 19-game stretch, the books are going to adjust and inflate their lines. I think that’s exactly what we are seeing here, as they aren’t going to let one team just keep covering.