The #12 overall UCF Knights (8-0) host the Navy Midshipmen (2-7) this weekend in AAC action. Kickoff is set for 12:00 PM EST at Spectrum Stadium and the game will be broadcast on ESPN2.
Taking a look at the Week 11 college football odds, UCF opened as a 25.5-point home favorite earlier this week. That line has remained unchanged after early betting, as the Knights are currently listed at -25.5. The total for the game is sitting at 64.5 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: UCF vs Navy
Navy lost their sixth straight game last weekend after getting crushed 42-0 by Cincinnati. The Mids were outclassed on both sides of the ball, generating just 171 total yards while allowing the Bearcats to rack up 451 yards of offense. QB Zach Abey got the start at quarterback but was only able to rush for 37 yards on 28 carries. Abey is the third starting quarterback for Navy this season after Malcolm Perry and Greg Lewis failed to consistently generate any significant momentum on offense. As a whole, the Midshipmen are currently scoring an average of just 25.1 points per game (97th overall) on 358.8 total yards. However, they are arguably the most unbalanced team in the country, as they are gaining 286.9 yards per game on the ground (3rd overall) but just 71.9 yards per game through the air (129th overall).
Things have been pretty dreadful on the other side of the ball for Navy, as opponents are currently scoring an average of 36.2 points per game (114th overall). The Mids have really struggled to defend against the pass, giving up an average of 255.0 yards per game through the air (102nd overall).
UCF stayed undefeated last Thursday after beating Temple 52-40 at home to improve to 8-0 on the season. The Knights managed to outscore their brutal play defensively against the Owls, as they gave up a ridiculous 670 total yards (444 yards through the air). QB McKenzie Milton continued his impressive season, throwing for 312 yards and three touchdowns in the victory. Milton now has passed for 2,109 yards and 19 touchdowns in just eight games. RB Greg McCrae had a monster game against Temple as well, turning just 16 carries into 188 rushing yards and a touchdown. Overall, UCF has been one of the highest-scoring teams in the country all season long – they are currently averaging 45.4 points per game (6th) on 548.8 yards of total offense (3rd overall). They have been electric both through the air and on the ground, ranking 25th and 5th overall respectively.
As good as the Knights have looked offensively, they have certainly had their share of problems on the other side of the ball. UCF is currently giving up an average of 20.9 points per game, which is actually quite good (24th overall). However, they are also giving up 188.3 yards per game on the ground (94th overall) and 429.8 yards per game of total offense (96th overall).
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: UCF -25.5
Despite the almost four touchdown spread, I still think UCF offers a ton of value in this spot. They haven’t lost a game in almost two full years and now get to play a lousy Navy team at home on Saturday. The Mids have been a disaster on both sides of the ball, especially offensively where they haven’t managed to score more than 22 points in four out of their last five games. The Knights offense is firing on all cylinders right now, as they have scored at least 31 points in every single game they have played this season – and scored 45+ in four out of eight games. There is no way that Navy has any shot at keeping pace with such a skilled offensive team – their defense is almost dead-last nationwide and the offense is just 97th overall.
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UCF is a very solid 4-0 ATS in their last four home games. They have also done quite well against other teams in the AAC, going 5-1 ATS over their last six conference games. Navy is a brutal 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. They are also 0-7 ATS over their last seven games overall.
Navy has now tried using three separate starting quarterbacks this season and nothing has really worked. They are an unbalanced, run-first team that also can’t really seem to gain any traction moving the football on the ground right now. Cincinnati held the Mids to just 124 rushing yards in Week 10, which ended up being good enough to keep them off the scoreboard all together. While they will likely be able to have a bit more success this weekend against a below average UCF run defense, there is no way they are going to be within four touchdowns of the Knights by the final whistle. I’m happily laying the points and rolling with the home favorite in this spot.