This Friday the Navy Midshipmen will travel to East Hartford to take on the Connecticut Huskies. Kickoff is set for 8:00 EST at Pratt & Whitney Stadium and will be televised on ESPN2.
Oddsmakers opened up this game at Navy -26 and it’s been bet up to -27.5 at most books. The total opened at 56.5 and is down to 54.5 at most places.
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Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Navy vs Connecticut
Navy Midshipmen (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS)
The Midshipmen come into this one off a 41-38 home win over Tulane, but came up short against the number as a 5-point favorite. That snapped 3 straight covers by Navy, who has already doubled their win total from last year’s disappointing 3-10 campaign.
Navy is right in the thick of things in the American Athletic West division. They are 4-1 in league play, trailing only No. 15 SMU (4-0), who they will host in a few weeks for a potential spot in the AAC title game. Their only other conference game is at Houston, who is currently 1-3 in league play.
Connecticut Huskies (2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS)
The Huskies enter off a 56-36 blowout win at UMass, easily covering as a 9.5-point favorite. With that win UConn has also doubled their win total from last year, as they went just 1-11 last year. It also marks back-to-back covers, as the Huskies were a 21.5-point dog in a 24-17 loss at home to Houston the previous week.
While Connecticut has already won twice as many games as they did in 2018, it is worth noting that those two wins were against Wagner and UMass. The next step for the Huskies is actually winning a conference game, something they haven’t done since 2017, as they enter on a 15-game losing streak in AAC play.
These two are on opposite sides of the AAC, so they don’t play every year. Last time they faced off was 2016, which Navy won 28-24 as a 3.5-point favorite. Overall Navy has won and covered three straight in the series, two of which have come since they made the joined the conference in 2015.
Free College Football Pick & Predictions: Navy -27.5
This is one that I’ll probably stay away from, as I don’t love laying this big of a number on the road in a weekday game, but if I had to roll the dice I would back the Midshipmen. I just think so much has to go right for Connecticut to keep this within the number.
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The big thing for me is that when matched up with some of the better teams in the AAC, the Huskies have failed to keep it close. They have a 35-point loss at UCF and a 42 point loss at Tulane. They also lost by 26 at home to South Florida, who isn’t very good this year.
On the flip side of this, Navy has dominated the lesser teams in the American. Midshipmen beat East Carolina 42-10, won at Tulsa 45-17 and destroyed South Florida 35-3.
These two have played two common opponents in Tulane and USF. Navy outscored those two teams 38.0 to 20.5 and outgained the two on average by more than 85 yards/game. UConn on the other hand was outscored 14.5 to 48.5 and outgained by more than 300 ypg (568.5 to 263.5).
Navy is 14-3 ATS last 17 on the road after a win by 3-points or less, while Connecticut is 0-7 ATS last 7 after rushing for more than 300 yards in their previous contest.
There’s also a great system in play here. Favorites of 21.5 to 31 who have outrushed each of their last two opponents by 125 or more yards and are averaging 230+ rushing yards/game are 27-7 (79%) ATS when facing a team that is averaging between 100 to 140 yards/game on the ground. Take Navy!