The NC State Wolfpack (4-7) host the North Carolina Tar Heels (5-6) this weekend for an all-ACC clash from Raleigh. Kickoff is set for 7:00 PM EST on November 30th at Carter-Finley Stadium and the game will be broadcast on the ACC Network.
Taking a look at the Week 14 college football odds, North Carolina opened as a 8-point road favorite earlier this week. The spread has increased by three full points after early betting, as the Tar Heels are currently available at -11. The total for the game is sitting at 55 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: NC State vs North Carolina
North Carolina snapped a two game losing streak last weekend, crushing Mercer 56-7 at home to improve to 5-6 on the season overall. The Tar Heels scored 42 unanswered points in the first half to put the game out of reach early, cruising to an easy victory over the final two quarters. QB Sam Howell went 10/13 for 152 passing yards and three touchdowns through the air while RB Michael Carter racked up 159 rushing yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Dyami Brown led the way for the receiving corps, hauling in three catches for 83 yards and a score. As a whole, North Carolina generated well over 500 total yards of offense and found the end zone eight times against a shell-shocked Bears defense.
The Tar Heels had a solid outing on the other side of the ball against Mercer, giving up just over 200 total yards of offense and only one touchdown. North Carolina was especially impressive defending against the run, allowing only 67 net rushing yards the entire game.
NC State couldn’t find a way to get past Georgia Tech their last time out, falling 28-26 on the road to drop to just 4-7 on the season overall. The Wolfpack gave up three touchdowns in the first half and never fully recovered despite outscoring the Yellow Jackets 23-7 over the final 30 minutes of the game. QB Devin Leary went 19/31 for 227 passing yards and a touchdown through the air but only rushed for 18 yards on seven carries on the ground. RB Zonovan Knight played well, rumbling for 100 yards and a touchdown on a team-high 18 carries. Tabari Hines also chipped in, making four receptions for 88 yards. Overall, NC State gained over 450 total yards of offense and scored three touchdowns despite coming up just short on the scoreboard.
The Wolfpack weren’t that great defensively against Georgia Tech, surrendering almost 400 total yards of offense and four touchdowns. NC State had no answer for Yellow Jackets QB James Graham on the ground, as he rushed for 112 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries.
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: OVER 55
I’m really not seeing a ton of value on either side of this ACC showdown, as the spread currently looks pretty efficient after moving down by three full points over the course of the week. While I do think that UNC should win this game outright, it’s hard to get all that excited about laying over ten points in order to take a team that has failed to cover the number in three out of their last four road games. Of course, NC State hasn’t exactly been overly impressive against the spread this year either, going a brutal 2-8-1 ATS through their first eleven games. Therefore, my favorite play in this particular spot is definitely the OVER on 55 total points scored. The Wolfpack have now given up 161 total points in just their last four games combined, which certainly looks like another good matchup for a UNC offense that has scored at least 27 points in three straight outings.
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It is also important to note that the total has now gone OVER in four of North Carolina’s last six games overall. A similar trend has also occurred when the Tar Heels have been up against ACC opponents, as the OVER has hit in four out of their last five conference games. On the other side, the OVER has come through in four out of NC State’s last five games as well. I’m going to avoid throwing darts against a pretty accurate looking spread in favor of the OVER on 55 total points on Saturday evening.