The New Mexico State Aggies (0-2) welcome the San Diego State Aztecs (2-0) on Saturday for a prime-time showdown in Las Cruces. Kickoff is set for 8:00 PM EST on Saturday, September 14th at Aggie Memorial Stadium and the game will be televised on FloFootball.
Taking a look at the Week 3 college football odds, San Diego State opened as a 16-point road favorite earlier this week. That line hasn’t moved at all after early betting, as the Aztecs are currently listed at -16. The total for the game is sitting at 49 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: New Mexico State vs San Diego State
San Diego State is off to a hot 2-0 start to the regular season after upsetting UCLA 23-14 on the road in Week 2. It was another solid performance by the battle-tested Aztecs defense, as they have now given up just 14 points combined in two games. The offense also did their part, scoring 10 points in the first quarter to put San Diego State up for good. QB Ryan Agnew was solid, albeit unspectacular, going 23/31 for 293 yards and a touchdown. His favorite target, WR Kobe Smith, had a monster game through the air and racked up 131 receiving yards and a touchdown on seven catches. However, the offense continued to struggle on the ground, as no rusher was able to average more than 2.4 yards per carry or gain more than 41 total rushing yards.
The Aztecs defense really made things difficult for the UCLA offense in Week 2, limiting the Bruins to well under 300 total yards and surrendering only two touchdowns. San Diego State was especially solid against the run, as no UCLA rusher averaged more than 3.5 yards per carry or gained more than 53 yards total on the ground.
New Mexico State got crushed by #1 overall Alabama in Week 2, although they did manage to hold on late to cover the massive 55-point spread. The Aggies fell behind 21-0 in the first quarter and never recovered, surrendering eight touchdowns on well over 550 yards of total offense. QB Josh Adkins did manage to complete over 60% of his passes but still only threw for 145 yards and one touchdown. RB Josh Foley had a pretty impressive game on the ground, averaging 7.3 yards per carry over seven rushing attempts. Jason Huntley had the only touchdown of the game for New Mexico State, catching a short pass and finding the end zone. As a whole, the offense gained under 250 total yards against a very tough Crimson Tide defense.
The Aggies defense obviously had an extremely rough outing in Week 2, getting torched for eight touchdowns by six different members of the Alabama offense. WR Jerry Jeudy had the biggest statistical day for the Crimson Tide, hauling in eight passes for 103 yards and a game-high three touchdowns.
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: New Mexico State +16
This is actually a pretty interesting spot, as it is very hard to get an accurate read on New Mexico State after their ridiculously tough schedule over the first two weeks of the regular season. Not only did they have to deal with Alabama in Week 2, they also opened the year by playing #20 overall Washington State on the road. While I do think that San Diego State should win this game with relative ease – and probably by double-digits – their offense hasn’t shown me enough to feel comfortable laying this many points away from home. The Aggies offense will likely score a couple of touchdowns, which could be enough to cover against an Aztecs team averaging less than 15 points per game. It isn’t exactly like San Diego State has had to deal with defensive powerhouses either, as Weber State plays in a weak conference and UCLA finished near the bottom of the nation in terms of points per game allowed in 2018 (104th overall).
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It is also important to note how much San Diego State has struggled to cover the spread as a double-digit favorite over the past several seasons, as they have failed to do so in eight consecutive games. They are also only 2-7 ATS in their last nine non-conference games, although that trend isn’t nearly as relevant as the first one in this spot. The Aztecs offense hasn’t scored more than two touchdowns in a game this year and New Mexico State has been the victim of arguably the worst two week schedule in the FBS thus far. I’m going to take a shot with the home underdog – give me the Aggies!