With the popularity of NFL teasers on the rise, I thought it would be good to provide some research into just what the best lines are to tease up or down.

I researched every situation: home favorites, home underdogs, road favorites, and road underdogs. Then I pin-pointed each situation where teasing those numbers would have been profitable using data from all regular season NFL games since 1980. Based on the typical odds for three-team 10-point teasers (-120), you would need to hit at 81.68% in order to turn a profit. I’ve highlighted the numbers over that percentage for your convenience.

Best 10-Point NFL Teasers (Favorites)
LineHomeAway
-172.60%71.15%
-1.579.65%72.73%
-284.12%80.87%
-2.583.26%74.40%
-382.78%83.54%
-3.577.14%82.02%
-481.07%81.82%
-4.581.43%78.48%
-576.06%80.88%
-5.585.03%86.44%
-680.49%79.57%
-6.577.73%77.38%
-781.76%84.17%
-7.576.81%74.47%
-885.19%65.85%
-8.580.00%78.57%
-983.74%83.87%
-9.577.42%78.95%
-1080.00%76.32%
-10.582.28%84.21%
-1188.14%77.78%
-11.580.56%81.82%
-1286.67%71.43%
-12.590.24%50.00%
-1378.57%42.86%
-13.567.69%75.00%
-1477.36%77.78%
-14.564.71%100.00%
-1573.33%100.00%
Best 10-Point NFL Teasers (Underdogs)
LineHomeAway
+185.58%80.00%
+1.584.85%76.99%
+278.07%80.00%
+2.583.93%79.07%
+379.65%78.72%
+3.580.90%75.87%
+475.21%86.14%
+4.578.48%85.71%
+575.71%82.76%
+5.577.97%78.44%
+670.65%76.70%
+6.577.38%80.33%
+772.80%72.52%
+7.572.34%76.81%
+877.50%75.74%
+8.564.29%75.53%
+980.00%77.24%
+9.586.84%76.61%
+1081.58%74.02%
+10.584.21%77.22%
+1172.22%70.18%
+11.590.91%69.44%
+1250.00%69.77%
+12.5100.00%82.93%
+13100.00%73.68%
+13.5100.00%75.38%
+1477.78%77.55%
+14.5100.00%76.47%
+1533.33%92.86%

What you’ll find in the table is that there are actually quite a few great situations for three-team 10-point teasers. As good as they may sound, you need to be selective. For example, notice that for home favorites, the numbers 2 through 3 are worth teasing. This makes sense right? Instead of a small home favorite, you tease down to +8 through +7, giving you an underdog line of more than a touchdown for a team that is actually favored in the game.

Use this table whenever you are thinking about betting a teaser to find out if the number you are getting is statistically worth teasing (see: profitable) or not.

NFL Teasers by Points

NFL Teasers by Situation