The Purdue Boilermakers (3-6) travel to Evanston, Illinois this weekend for a BIG 10 battle against the Northwestern Wildcats (1-7). Kickoff is set for 12:00 PM EST on November 9th at Ryan Field and the game will be televised on the BIG 10 Network.
Taking a look at the Week 11 college football odds, Northwestern opened as a 1.5-point home underdog earlier this week. The spread has increased by a full point after early betting, as the Wildcats are currently available at +2.5. The total for the game is sitting at 40.5 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Northwestern vs Purdue
Purdue snapped a two game losing streak last weekend, beating Nebraska 31-27 at home to improve to 3-6 on the season overall. The Boilermakers gave up ten unanswered points in the first 15 minutes of the game but responded with two touchdowns before the half to take the lead for good. QB Jack Plummer went 25/34 for 242 yards and two touchdowns but also got picked off twice. RB King Doerue led the way on the ground, rushing for 71 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries. Brycen Hopkins also chipped in, hauling in eight catches for a team-high 97 receiving yards. Overall, Purdue gained 450 total yards of offense and scored four touchdowns in the win.
The Boilermakers had an average outing on the other side of the ball against Nebraska, surrendering just under 400 total yards of offense and three touchdowns. Purdue couldn’t find a way to contain the Cornhuskers on the ground, giving up well over 100 rushing yards and three touchdowns.
Northwestern has now lost seven out of their first eight games this year, falling 34-3 on the road against Indiana last weekend to drop to just 1-7 on the season overall. The Wildcats gave up ten unanswered points in the first quarter and never recovered, scoring just a single field goal the rest of the game en route to a third consecutive double-digit defeat. Hunter Johnson and Aidan Smith both failed to find the end zone through the air and combined for only 112 passing yards. Smith did lead the way on the ground for the offense, although he only managed to rush for 34 yards. As a whole, Northwestern generated just over 200 yards of offense against a tough Hoosiers defense.
The Wildcats really struggled defensively against Indiana, surrendering over 400 total yards of offense and four touchdowns. Northwestern had no answer for Hoosiers RB Stevie Scott on the ground, as he rushed for 116 yards and two touchdowns on a game-high 26 carries.
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: UNDER 40.5
Both of these BIG 10 teams have really struggled this season, going just a combined 4-13 over the first ten weeks of the season. While I think that Purdue probably deserves to be the slight favorite in this particular matchup, they are also a brutal 0-5 outright over their last five games against Northwestern overall. I really don’t see a ton of value on either side against the spread, which means I will most likely fade both teams in favor of the UNDER on 40.5 total points scored. The Wildcats offense has been terrible as of late, scoring just 16 total points over their last four games combined. While Purdue should have a bit more success offensively on Saturday afternoon, Northwestern has held their opponents to 20 points or less in four games this year.
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It is also important to note that how well the Wildcats defense has played at home as of late, as the total has gone UNDER in six out of their last eight games at Ryan Field. Purdue has also struggled to put points on the board away from Ross-Ade Stadium at times this season, as the UNDER has hit in two out of their last three road games. Finally, the total has gone UNDER in eight out of the last 12 meetings between these two teams overall. I’m going to avoid both schools against what looks to be a pretty efficient spread in favor of the UNDER on 40.5 total points scored in this BIG 10 battle here in Week 11.