The #18 overall Michigan State Spartans (6-3) host the #10 overall Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1) this weekend in a critical Big 10 matchup. Kickoff is set for 12:00 PM EST at Spartan Stadium and the game will be broadcast on FOX.
Taking a look at the Week 11 college football odds, Ohio State opened as a 3.5-point road favorite earlier this week. That line has remained unchanged after early betting, as the Buckeyes are currently listed at -3.5. The total for the game is sitting at 50 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Michigan State vs Ohio State
Ohio State moved to 8-1 last weekend after they managed to sneak by Nebraska by a score of 36-31. It was certainly an alarming response after getting upset by Purdue in Week 9, as the Cornhuskers entered the game with just a 2-6 record on the season. The Buckeyes actually trailed 21-16 at the half before mounting a comeback to avoid losing their second game in a row to an unranked team. QB Dwayne Haskins is certainly doing his part, throwing for 3,053 yards and 32 touchdowns in just nine games. He has had a ton of help from the ground attack, as the RB duo of J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber have combined for 1,291 yards and ten touchdowns. As a whole, Ohio State is currently averaging 42.2 points per game (10th overall) on over 500 yards of total offense. They have really been able to move the ball well through the air, averaging 369.1 passing yards per game (3rd overall).
Things have looked fairly average on the other side of the ball for Ohio State, as they are currently giving up an average of 23.8 points per game (46th overall). They are currently allowing 153.4 rushing yards per game (56th overall) and 243.9 passing yards per game (85th overall).
Michigan State won their second straight game after a disappointing loss to Michigan several weeks ago, beating Maryland 24-3 to improve to 6-3 on the season. The Spartans were dominant on both sides of the ball, as they gave up just 100 total yards to the Terps while racking up over 350 yards of their own on offense. QB Brian Lewerke has struggled at times this season, passing for 1,740 yards and eight touchdowns while also throwing eight interceptions. RB Connor Heyward has rushed for almost 400 yards while also scoring five touchdowns. Overall, Michigan State is currently averaging just 23.4 points per game on offense (110th overall). They have really struggled to move the ball on the ground for much of the season, averaging only 125.6 rushing yards per game (112th overall).
The Spartans have been one of the best defensive teams in the country through the first ten weeks of the season, giving up an average of just 19.0 points per game (16th overall). Michigan State has really done a nice job against the rush, allowing only 71.7 yards per game on the ground which is first overall nationwide. However, they have struggled a bit against the pass, allowing 253.4 yards per game through the air (98th overall).
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: Ohio State -3.5
The Buckeyes have made a lot of people look pretty foolish over the past several weeks, as they have been free-falling down the AP Top 25 poll. They were certainly mediocre at best in Week 10 against Nebraska after being a no-show in Week 9 against Purdue where they lost by 29 points. Even so, I still think I’m going back to the well in this particular spot. Michigan State has been a nice story so far this season, especially defensively where they currently own the best run defense in the entire country. However, the Spartans offense has looked pretty anemic as of late, as they haven’t scored more than 24 points for five consecutive games. I really don’t think they can keep pace with such a high-flying Ohio State offense for four quarters.
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Michigan State is just 1-4 ATS over their last five home games. They are also only 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win. The Buckeyes are a very solid 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning home record. They are also 5-2 ATS over their last seven games at Spartan Stadium.
There is no doubt that Ohio State has had their share of struggles as of late. However, they will be playing with a huge sense of urgency on Saturday, as they can’t afford to slip any further down the rankings if they hope to have an outside shot at making the College Football Playoff. Michigan State doesn’t have any real consistency at the quarterback position, as Lewerke has thrown as many interceptions through nine games as he has touchdowns. This line is still small enough that there is plenty of value to be had with the Buckeyes, so I’m laying the 3.5 points and taking the road favorite.