The Iowa State Cyclones (5-3) head to Norman, Oklahoma this weekend for a BIG 12 showdown against the #9 overall Oklahoma Sooners (7-1). Kickoff is set for 8:00 PM EST on November 9th at Oklahoma Memorial Stadium and the game will be nationally televised on FOX.
Taking a look at the Week 11 college football odds, Oklahoma opened as a 13-point home favorite earlier this week. The spread has increased by over a full point after early betting, as the Sooners are currently available at -14.5. The total for the game is sitting at 66.5 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Oklahoma vs Iowa State
Iowa State couldn’t find a way to win a fourth straight game their last time out, falling 34-27 at home against Oklahoma State to drop back to 5-3 on the season overall. The Cyclones trailed 21-13 at the half and never fully recovered despite scoring two touchdowns over the final two quarters of the game. QB Brock Purdy went 39/62 for 382 yards and a touchdown but also got picked off three times as well. RB Breece Hall was solid on the ground, rushing for a team-high 76 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries. Deshaunte Jones and Charlie Kolar led the way for the receiving corps, combining for 179 yards and a touchdown. Overall, Iowa State gained well over 450 total yards of offense and found the end zone three times despite coming up short on the scoreboard.
The Cyclones didn’t have a great outing on the other side of the ball against Oklahoma State, surrendering well over 400 total yards of offense and three touchdowns. Iowa State had no answer for Cowboys WR Tylan Wallace, as he torched the secondary for 131 yards and a touchdown on a team-high eight receptions.
Oklahoma lost their first game of the season in Week 9, getting upset 48-41 on the road against Kansas State to drop to 7-1 overall. The Sooners gave up 17 unanswered points in the third quarter which ultimately proved to be the difference, as not even an 18-point outburst over the final 15 minutes of the game could save OU. QB Jalen Hurts went 19/26 for 395 yards and a touchdown through the air while also exploding for 96 rushing yards and three touchdowns on the ground. CeeDee Lamb ran circles around the Wildcats secondary, racking up 135 receiving yards and finding the end zone on one of his five catches. As a whole, Oklahoma generated 497 total yards of offense and scored four touchdowns in the loss.
The Sooners had an absolutely brutal game defensively against Kansas State, giving up well over 400 yards and six touchdowns. Oklahoma really struggled to contain Wildcats QB Skylar Thompson on the ground, as he scored a season-high four rushing touchdowns.
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: OVER 66.5
While I am somewhat tempted to take the 14.5 points and roll with the big road underdog in this matchup, I am a little bit wary of an Oklahoma squad that hasn’t been able to wash the taste of their first loss of the season out of their collective mouths for two full weeks. The Sooners will be extremely motivated for this game, as their stunning loss to K-State at the end of October has really put a big dent in their playoff chances. I likely would have taken a shot with the Sooners when they first opened up at -13, but that value is long gone with the spread currently at 14.5 points. As things sit now, I actually think that the optimal play in this spot is likely the OVER on 66.5 total points scored. Both offenses should put on a show on Saturday evening, as both schools have scored at least 34 points in three out of their last four games overall.
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Neither defense has been particularly solid as of late either, as the Sooners have given up at least three touchdowns in three out of their last four games while Iowa State has surrendered an average of almost 30 points per game over their last two outings. It is also worth noting that the total has gone OVER in six out of the last seven meetings between these BIG 12 rivals. Finally, the OVER has hit in six straight home games for Oklahoma as well. I’ll avoid both teams against what now looks to be a pretty efficient spread in favor of the OVER on 66.5 total points scored in what should be a highly entertaining Week 11 matchup.