This Saturday the No. 5 ranked Oklahoma Sooners will travel to Ames, Iowa to take on the Iowa State Cyclones in the 2018 Big 12 opener for both programs. Kickoff is set for 12:00 EST at Jack Trice Stadium and will be televised nationally on ABC.
Oddsmakers opened this line at Oklahoma -17 and while most books are still at that number, some have bumped the Sooners to -17.5. The total is at 55 or 55.5 points depending on where you shop. Click here for a full list of the Week 3 betting odds and for more links to our game previews.
Oklahoma vs Iowa State Vegas Game Odds & Betting Preview
The Sooners walked away with a comfortable 49-21 win at home over UCLA this past Saturday, but did fail to cover as massive 30.5-point favorites. It definitely felt like an inflated line after Oklahoma annihilated FAU 63-14 as a mere 18.5-point favorite in Week 1.
They Cyclones enter off an emotional loss on the road to in-state rival Iowa. ISU could get next to nothing going offensively, as they managed just 188 total yards in a 13-3 loss as a 3-point dog. That was the Cyclones official 2018 opener. While they started their Week 1 game against South Dakota and had a 7-0 lead, the game was called to due to weather.
Iowa State snapped a 18-game losing streak to the Sooners in one of the bigger upsets of the 2017 season. The Cyclones went into Norman and defeated then No. 3 Oklahoma 38-31 as a 31-point underdog. Oklahoma led 24-10 with less than 3 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter, but ISU would close out the game on a 28-7 run for the win.
Free NCAA Football Pick & Predictions: Iowa State +17.5
I would have to lean towards taking the points with the Cyclones at home in what is without a doubt the biggest home game on the schedule for Iowa State. I’m well aware of the injury to starting quarterback Kyle Kempt, who seems unlikely to play after suffering a knee injury in the 2nd half against Iowa.
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Backup Zeb Noland is more than capable of filling in for Kempt and he’s got plenty of weapons to work with at both receiver and in star junior running back David Montgomery. Noland didn’t put up great numbers in relief of Kempt in the game against Iowa, but a lot of that had to do with him coming in basically having to throw it against an Iowa defense that knew they were looking to pass.
The even bigger key here is the Cyclones have the talent on defense to rattle this Oklahoma offense, which has to be feeling pretty good about themselves after the first two games. Not only is this by far the best defense the Sooners will have been up against, but it’s also their first road game of the season, something that will get overlooked by a lot of people.
Let’s also not ignore the fact that the Sooners lost their top running back in Rodney Anderson to a season-ending knee injury in their win against UCLA. Anderson was clearly a difference-maker early on, as he had 119 yards and 3 scores on just 11 carries (10.8 yards/carry). As good as Kyler Murray has looked in place of Heisman winner Baker Mayfield, I think he could struggle without Anderson in what’s going to be a hostile environment.
Iowa State is 10-2 ATS in there last 12 home games, 15-5-1 in their last 21 off a straight up loss and 15-5-1 in their last 21 against conference opponents. I’m not saying they are going to beat Oklahoma for a second straight year, but I don’t think it’s out of the question, making this an easy play with the spread set where it is. Give me the Cyclones +17.5.