This Saturday the No. 25 ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-1) will host the Iowa State Cyclones (1-3). Kickoff is set for 3:30 EST at Boone Pickens Stadium and will be televised on ESPN2.
Oddsmakers opened this game up with Oklahoma State as a 9.5-point home favorite, but that number has been bet up and the Cowboys are either a 10 or 10.5-point favorite depending on where you shop. The total for this matchup is currently sitting at 54.5 points. Click here for a full look at the Week 6 NCAAF odds and for more links to our game previews.
Oklahoma State vs Iowa State Vegas Preview & Game Predictions
The Cyclones come into this one off another heartbreaking loss, as they fell 17-14 at TCU with the Horned Frogs kicking the game-winning field goal in the final seconds of regulation. Iowa State did cover the spread as an 11.5-point dog (never trailed by more than 7).
The Cowboys bounced back from their shocking 41-17 loss at home to Texas Tech as a 14.5-point favorite with a comfortable 48-28 win at home against Kansas. Despite never leading by fewer than 10 points, Oklahoma State needed a late touchdown to cash in a cover as a 17-point favorite.
Oklahoma State defeated the Cyclones 49-42 as a 8-point road favorite last year and have won 6 straight meetings in the series since that improbable loss at Iowa State in 2011, where the Cowboys came in ranked No. 2 in the country with a perfect 10-0 record.
Vegas Free NCAAF Betting Pick: Iowa State +10.5
I would have to lean towards grabbing the points and taking my chances on the Cyclones keeping this within single-digits. I not only think ISU is capable of covering, but I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if they won this game outright.
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I think we are simply seeing an inflated number here because of the fact that Iowa State comes into this game with a 1-3 record and are still without starting quarterback Kyle Kempt and on top of that, star running back David Montgomery is questionable to play (day-to-day). What you can’t overlook with the Cyclones slow start is how difficult the schedule has been to start the season. Two of their losses have come on the road against the likes of Iowa and TCU, both of which they could have won outright. The other was a mere 10-point loss at home (without Kempt) to No. 5 Oklahoma, where they trailed by just 7 points in the 4th quarter.
Simply put, I think this Iowa State is one of the most underrated teams in the country right now and we are definitely seeing that with this double-digit spread. Oklahoma State is a team I was way down on this year and while they have an impressive win over Boise State, they have an equally bad loss at home to Texas Tech. The other three wins are all against cupcake opponents in Missouri St, South Alabama and Kansas.
I think the most telling thing that this Cowboys team isn’t as good as previous years, is the fact that they managed to score just 17 points at home against a horrible Red Raiders defense. I think we could see another poor showing from the Oklahoma State offense in this one, as this Cyclones defense is no joke. Despite a brutal schedule to this point, Iowa State comes in ranked 31st in the country, giving up just 333.3 ypg.
Not only is it going to be tough for the Cowboys to score enough to cover this big spread, but I also think their defense is going to have their hands full against this Cyclones offense with or without Montgomery. The injury to Kempt was a bad break, but backup Zeb Noland has came in and completed 64% of his attempts with a 4-1 TD-INT ratio. ISU has some legit athletes at receiver and I look for Noland to go off against a Oklahoma State secondary that ranks 105th in the country, giving up 262 ypg.
It’s also worth noting that while the Cowboys have won 6 straight in the series, the Cyclones have covered each of the last 3 meetings. Iowa State is also an impressive 15-6 ATS as an underdog, 15-5 ATS vs conference opponents, 8-1 ATS after losing 2 of 3 and 10-1 ATS vs teams allowing opposing quarterbacks to compete 58% or more of their pass attempts since Matt Campbell took over as head coach in 2016. Give me the Cyclones +10.5.