This Saturday the No. 23 Iowa State Cyclones will host the Oklahoma State Cowboys in an important Big 12 matchup. Kickoff is set for 3:30 EST at Jack Trice Stadium and will be televised on FS1.
Oddsmakers opened up this line at Iowa State -8.5 , but early money on the Cyclones has this line up to ISU -10.5. The total opened at 64.5 and is down to 64 or 63.5 depending on where you shop.
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Oklahoma State vs Iowa State Vegas Preview & Game Predictions
Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-3 SU, 4-2-1 ATS)
Oklahoma State has learned the hard way how quickly things can turn for the worst in Big 12 play. The Cowboys looked like legit contenders after going 3-0 in non-conference play and losing their Big 12 opener on the road by just 6 at Texas. They even followed up that near upset of the Longhorns with a convincing 26-13 win over K-State.
Then came the shocking 45-35 loss at Texas Tech as a 9.5-point favorite. Most expected them to rebound at home against Baylor and it looked like they were well on their way leading the Bears 20-10 in the 2nd half. Next thing you know it’s a blowout the other way and Baylor win 45-27.
Turnovers continue to be a problem for the Cowboys. They coughed it up 5 times against the Red Raiders and 3 more times against Baylor. They have had at least 2 turnovers in 6 straight games.
Iowa State Cyclones (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS)
Those that counted out the Cyclones after a 2-2 start are likely rethinking that assumption right about now. Iowa State went on the road and defeated Texas Tech 34-24 as a 7.5-point road favorite. Cyclones have now won 3 straight and are back in the Top 25.
They are also right in the thick of things in the Big 12 title race. Baylor and Oklahoma are tied on top the conference at 4-0, with ISU and Texas both at 3-1. Cyclones get a bye after this one before going to Oklahoma and then hosting Texas.
Those that have been backing Iowa State are enjoying a nice return on their investment right now. Cyclones have covered 3 straight and 5 of their last 6 overall.
The Cyclones won 48-42 as a 10-point road dog at Oklahoma State last year. The Cowboys had won 6 straight in the series prior to that ISU win. It was the first win for the Cyclones in the series since that epic 37-31 win over No. 2 Oklahoma State back in 2011, which ultimately kept the Cowboys out of the BCS Championship Game.
Vegas Free NCAAF Betting Pick: Iowa State -10.5
My early lean would be to lay the 10.5-points with Iowa State at home. I just think that a lot of people are going to see Oklahoma State getting 10.5 and want to take the Cowboys. I get it. It does seem like a few too many, but at the same time there’s no way I’m betting against ISU here.
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Since Matt Campbell arrived at Iowa State the Cyclones have gone an impressive 16-5 ATS when matchup against an opponent that has a winning record. The books simply haven’t been able to catch up with this team.
As for Oklahoma State, you have to wonder what the morale is like with this team after blowing a double-digit lead in the 2nd half at home against Baylor. A game they desperately needed to have any hopes of making the Big 12 title game. Cowboys are now 1-3 in Big 12 play and still got Oklahoma on the schedule.
Wouldn’t surprise me at all if this team laid an egg on Saturday, especially after watching how they crumbled in the 2nd half when things didn’t go their way against Baylor.
The Oklahoma State offense is centered around Chuba Hubbard, but will be facing a ISU defense that only gives up 114 ypg and 3.3 yards/carry. If Hubbard isn’t racking up yards, it’s made things really difficult on quarterback Spencer Sanders and he’s struggling to protect the ball. He has 8 interceptions and 6 fumbles (lost 4) in 4 conference games.
When you turn the ball over at that kind of rate against a good team on the road it’s hard to keep it close. I think the Cyclones have the edge on both sides of the ball and should win here by 14 or more. Give me Iowa State -10.5!