The Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-1) host the #24 overall Kansas State Wildcats (3-0) this weekend for an important BIG 12 battle. Kickoff is set for 7:00 PM EST on Saturday, September 28th at Boone Pickens Stadium and the game will be televised on ESPN+.
Taking a look at the Week 5 college football odds, Oklahoma State opened as a 5.5-point home favorite earlier this week. The spread has dropped by over a full point after early betting, as the Cowboys are currently listed at -4. The total for the game is sitting at 62 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Oklahoma State vs Kansas State
Kansas State improved to 3-0 overall their last time out, beating Mississippi State 31-24 on the road. The Wildcats held a 17-14 lead at the half and found a way to hang on down the stretch, outscoring the Bulldogs 14-3 in the fourth quarter to take the lead for good. QB Skylar Thompson went 10/18 for 123 yards and a touchdown while also adding eight yards and another score on the ground. Jordan Brown also found the end zone on a running play while Dalton Schoen led the way for the receiving corps with three catches for 50 yards and a touchdown. As a whole, Kansas State generated just over 250 total yards of offense and scored three touchdowns against an above average Mississippi State defense.
The Wildcats were pretty solid on the other side of the ball in Week 3 as well, holding MS State to under 350 yards of total offense and three touchdowns. Kansas State really did a great job putting pressure on Bulldogs QB Tommy Stevens, as they forced him to throw two critical interceptions.
Oklahoma State lost their first game of the season last weekend, falling 36-30 on the road against Texas to drop to 3-1 overall. The Cowboys trailed by just a single point at the half but couldn’t find a way to overtake the Longhorns over the final two quarters, getting outscored 15-10. QB Spencer Sanders really struggled through the air, going 19/32 for 268 yards and getting picked off twice. However, Sanders did have a good game on the ground, racking up 109 rushing yards and a touchdown on 18 attempts. RB Chuba Hubbard also had another monster game, rushing for 121 yards and two scores on a game-high 37 carries. Overall, Oklahoma State gained 594 total yards and scored three touchdowns despite coming up just short on the scoreboard.
The Cowboys defense did not play all that well in Week 4, allowing Texas to rack up over 500 total yards of offense and score five touchdowns. OSU really had a tough time trying to slow down Longhorns QB Sam Ehlinger in particular, as he threw for 281 passing yards and four touchdowns.
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: OVER 62
This spread looks pretty efficient to me, so I’m likely going to fade both teams in what should be a close, evenly-matched game that could go either way. However, I do think that there will be a ton of points scored in this particular spot as both teams have had a ton of early-season success on offense but have showed some weaknessess on the defensive side of the ball. Kansas State has scored at least 31 points in each of their three games so far this season, while Oklahoma State has scored 40+ points in three out of their four outings so far this year. While the Wildcats appear to be fairly average on defense, the Cowboys have given up 36+ points twice in just four games. As such, the OVER on 62 total points scored certainly looks pretty appealing.
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It is also important to note that the OVER has hit in 12 out of OSU’s last 14 home games. A similar trend has occurred when these two teams have met over the past several seasons, as the OVER has also hit in six consecutive games between Oklahoma State and Kansas State at Boone Pickens Stadium. Finally, the OVER has also come through in seven out of the last eight meetings between these two teams overall. Ultimately, taking either of these rivals against the spread doesn’t seem like the optimal play in this BIG 12 matchup, so I’ll take a shot with the OVER on 62 total points in what should be a back and forth, offensively-driven affair.