This Saturday the No. 6 Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-0) will host the No. 16 TCU Horned Frogs (3-0) in the Big 12 opener for both programs. Kickoff is set for 3:30 EST at Boone Pickens Stadium and will be televised on ESPN.
Oddsmakers currently have the Cowboys listed as a 11.5-point home favorite with the total set at 70.5 points. Click here for a full Week 4 betting schedule and links to more game previews.
TCU vs Oklahoma State Vegas Game Odds & Betting Predictions
The Horned Frogs failed to cover as 22-point favorites in a 56-36 win at home over SMU. TCU actually led by 27 in the 4th quarter, which was quite a feat given they trailed 7-19 more than half way through the 2nd quarter. The big turning point in the game came right before half, when Kenny Hill hit Jalen Reagor on a 38-yard Hail Mary as time expired.
The Cowboys obliterated the spread once again, as they went into Pittsburgh and won 59-21 as a 10.5-point favorite. It could have been a lot worse, as Oklahoma State was up 49-7 in the first half. It was quite a statement game for the Cowboys, who have come out of the gates clicking on all cylinders.
TCU will be looking to avoid a 3rd straight loss in the series, though they were actually favored in the last two meetings. Oklahoma State won 49-29 as a 5-point dog last time these two teams played at Boone Pickens in 2015 and last year the Cowboys won 31-6 as a 6-point road underdog.
Free NCAA Football Pick Against the Betting Total: OVER 70.5
I want to take the points here with TCU, but I’m not about to bet against the Cowboys at home in a big game after what they did to Pittsburgh last week. Keep in mind that’s the same Panthers team that outgained Penn State the previous week in State College. With that said, I really like this year’s TCU team and wouldn’t overreact to their slow start against SMU last week, as that was a big trap game having just played at Arkansas and knowing you got this game on deck.
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If I had to play something in this game, I would have to take the OVER at 70.5. The being I just don’t see the Horned Frogs defense coming into StillWater and slowing down the Cowboys attack. Keep in mind that while Oklahoma State is averaging 54.0 ppg and 607 ypg, the starters having spent a ton of time on the sidelines. The Cowboys have scored a whopping 13-points in the 4th quarter this season.
There’s simply too many weapons for opposing teams to stop and senior QB Mason Rudolph is playing out his mind. Rudolph has already thrown for 1,135 yards and 11 touchdowns, while completing 72.3% of his attempts.
Now you aren’t going to top 70 points without both teams putting the ball in the end zone. The good news is TCU should be able to do more than enough to push this over the mark. The Horned Frogs come in ranked 28th in rushing (230.3 ypg) and are 40th in passing (277.0 ypg). The key here is that the Horned Frogs should be able to score early, though if it gets ugly, they will also be able to score late. I think this is a much better offense than Tulsa, who was able to rack up 24 points and 432 yards against Oklahoma State this season.
It’s also worth noting that the OVER is 11-2 in the Cowboys last 13 home games when they score at least 28 points. I don’t know about you, but I have a hard time seeing them score fewer than 40. Adding to that, the OVER is 6-0 in Oklahoma State’s last 6 home games against an opponent that comes in averaging 34 or more points/game.