Two teams in contention for the Big 12 title meet this weekend when the West Virginia Mountaineers host the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Kickoff is set for noon EST on Saturday, October 28 at Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown, West Virginia. The game will be nationally televised on ABC.

Oddsmakers have the Cowboys at 7.5-point favorites on the road. The over/under is set at 74.5 points. Click here for a full list of Week 9 betting odds and links to game previews.

Oklahoma State vs West Virginia Vegas Game Odds & Betting Predictions

The no. 11 Cowboys enter this game at 6-1 and 3-1 in Big 12 play. OSU was lucky to escape with an overtime win against Texas last week. The typically potent Cowboys offense was held to just 10 points in regulation. But because they have just one loss on the year, the Cowboys are still in the running for a spot in the Big 12 title game.

The same is true for the no. 22 Mountaineers, who are 5-2 overall but 3-1 in the conference. Like OSU, West Virginia had a scare last week, nearly blowing a 25-point lead against Baylor. The Mountaineers managed to stop a 2-point conversion try with 17 seconds left in the game to hold on 38-36.

Interestingly, these two teams have had almost the same conference schedule thus far. Both have defeated Baylor and Texas Tech, two of the weaker teams in the Big 12, but lost to TCU. That means both teams have a tough November schedule, making this a must-win game for both teams.

Free College Football Betting Selection: West Virginia +7.5

Oklahoma State’s struggles against Texas were concerning. The Cowboys were also lucky to escape with a win against a mediocre Texas Tech team a couple weeks. I’m not sold on OSU being one of the top teams in the Big 12. I also can’t swallow that many points on the road. I’ll lean toward West Virginia to at least keep it within a touchdown.

To be fair, there are also serious concerns about the West Virginia defense. The Mountaineers have given up 34 points to Kansas and 36 points against Baylor. However, they gave up most of those points after establishing a comfortable lead. It’s not a great sign that the Mountaineers have been vulnerable against bad teams when holding a lead. But the West Virginia defense won’t be able to relax against OSU, even with a lead, so I can see them performing better this week.

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Last week’s game against Texas showed that the Cowboys can be contained. Obviously, the West Virginia defense is not on the same level as the Texas defense. But the Texas defense was able to limit the Cowboys to less than three yards per rush on the ground. If West Virginia can replicate that, they’ll have a chance to stop some of the big plays are often seem inevitable from Mason Rudolph and the OSU offense.

On the other side of the ball, the Mountaineers are more than capable of keeping up in a track meet if their defense falters. Quarterback Will Grier is in the midst of an outstanding season. Over the past two weeks, he’s thrown 10 touchdowns and just one interception. 

At times this season, the Cowboys have been tough defensively. But they also haven’t played a tough schedule to this point. Both TCU and Texas Tech have been able to move the ball against them, and it’s likely that West Virginia will be able to as well.

On paper, Oklahoma State is a slightly better team than West Virginia, but not by much. Morgantown can be a tough place for visiting teams, especially when the Mountaineers are in contention for a conference championship. Two years ago in Morgantown, this game went to overtime, and I expect another close game. I don’t think OSU is more than a touchdown better than West Virginia, so I feel confident taking the home team and the points.