The last game on the board for Friday night Week 1 action is the Oregon State Beavers hosting the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Kickoff is set for 10:30 EST at Reser Stadium and will be televised on FS1.
Oddsmakers opened up this line with Oklahoma State as a 16.5-point road favorite. That line has since dropped to the Cowboys -14.5. The total opened at 72 and has been adjusted up to 74.5.
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Vegas Game Odds & Betting Preview: Oklahoma St vs Oregon St.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
The Cowboys’ streak of three straight double-digit win seasons came to end with a 7-6 mark in 2018. It wasn’t a huge surprise, as they lost from that 2017 team. The big shocker was how they got to 7-6.
They won 4 games outright as a dog, including a 38-33 win over Missouri as a 8-point dog in the Liberty Bowl. At the same time, they lost 4 games as a favorite. The biggest of those being a 41-17 defeat as a 14-point home favorite against Texas Tech.
Mike Gundy heads into his 15th year on the job in Stillwater. It’s easy to see why the media isn’t overly excited about this team. They only got 12 starters back and have to fill a big hole at QB with the departure of Taylor Cornelius. With that said, don’t think for a second that Gundy and his troops aren’t going into 2019 thinking Big 12 title.
Oregon State Beavers
The Beavers went just 2-10 in the first year under head coach Jonathan Smith. Their only win in the PAC-12 came in a ridiculous 31-3 comeback (won 41-34) over Colorado. It didn’t help that starting quarterback was banged up from the start (suffered a concussion on the Beavers first offensive possession of the season). He would only start 5 games for the season.
So while Oregon State has a lot of ground to make up in the PAC-12, there’s reason to believe they will be more competitive in 2019, as they bring back 16 starters (7 offense, 9 defense), including Luton. If this team is going to compete, they must get better on defense. Last year they 129th in the country, giving up 45.7 ppg and 129th in total defense at 536.8 ypg.
Free College Football Pick, Predictions & Analysis: Oklahoma St -14.5
I would have to lean towards laying the 14.5-points with the Cowboys in this one. I can see the concern some of you might have with Oklahoma State having to travel way out west for a game, especially given the uncertainty at quarterback. I just don’t know that the talent is there for a motivated Oregon State team to keep this close.
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I want to make it clear that I think Oregon State is going to be a much improved team in 2019. However, we are still talking about the same team that has allowed 40+ ppg on the defensive side of the ball each of the last two years. Even with 9 starters back, that unit is going to be abused by good offenses.
Whether it’s senior transfer (Hawaii) quarterback Dru Brown or red-shirt freshman Spencer Sanders, I’m pretty confident that Gundy is going to get above-average quarterback play. Both also have the potential to be stars with the talent OSU has at the skill positions. Wide out Tylan Wallace is a beast and the Cowboys are excited to get a look at red-shirt freshman C.J. Moore.
You also have to keep in mind that Oklahoma State is a team that loves to play in high-scoring games. When they struggle, it’s usually against ball control teams with a good defense.
I could see Luton and the Beavers putting up some points here (would lean OVER 74.5), but I think this is going to be more like a 54-31 type of game. Oregon State has gone just 6-15 last 21 as a dog and are losing as by an average of 23.6 ppg. Oklahoma State is 9-1 ATS last 10 non-conference. Give me the Cowboys -14.5