This Friday the Oregon State Beavers (2-9) will host the Oregon Ducks (7-4) in this classic in-state rivalry known as the Civil War. Kickoff is set for 4:00 EST at Reser Stadium and will be televised on FOX Sports 1.
Taking a look at the Week 13 NCAA Football odds, the books opened this thing up with Oregon as a 14.5-point road favorite. However, early money has come in on the Ducks and they are now at -16.5 or -17 depending on where you shop. The total for this contest is currently 68.5 points.
Oregon State vs Oregon Game Preview & Betting Odds
The Ducks come into this one off a thrilling 31-29 win at home over Arizona State, though it was the Sun Devils who covered as 3.5-point dogs. Difference in the game being a failed 2-point conversion by ASU on a late 4th quarter touchdown. Oregon definitely did their part to keep the Sun Devils in the game, as they turned it over 4 times (-3 turnover margin). With the victory the Ducks secured a winning overall record, but will need a win here to finish above .500 in league play.
The Sun Devils enter this one off a 42-23 loss at Washington, but did cash a winning ticket as a 32-point underdog. The Beavers would certainly like to have the first quarter back against the Huskies, as Washington scored 4 touchdowns to take a commanding 28-3 lead after the first 15 minutes of play. Overall not a bad effort from an Oregon State team that is just playing for pride.
I don’t think anyone will be surprised to see that Oregon has won 9 of the last 10 in this series and last year’s wasn’t close at all, as the Ducks annihilated the Beavers 69-10 as a 26-point home favorite. However, the last time these two met in Corvallis, Oregon State pulled off a 34-24 win as a 2.5-point dog.
Free College Football Against the Spread Pick: Oregon State +17
If I was going to play this game, I would have to roll the dice with the Beavers keeping this thing within the number. I just think this is one of those games where the books know the public wants absolutely nothing to do with Oregon State and will be pounding the Ducks. It’s why they were quick to adjust this line up and I wouldn’t be shocked if we didn’t see this get to 17.5 or higher.
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I completely understand why you would want to back Oregon. If all things were equal, the Ducks should beat a team like the Beavers by at least 20-points. The thing is, crazy things happen in these rivalry games and this is a real tricky spot for a team like Oregon. Sure there’s in-state bragging rights on the line, but when you have dominated a series like the Ducks have, it’s hard to get the juices flowing like it’s a do-or-die scenario. Especially with no real incentive for winning this game. The only difference being they finish 8-4 instead of 7-5.
On the flip side of this, this game means everything to the Beavers. A win here and while the Beavers would still be sitting at 3-9, it would be a big accomplishment for first year head coach Jonathan Smith, who is trying to bring this program back to respectability. Smith and his staff will be coaching their tails off and doing whatever they can to get their players to play their hearts out. I think we get that max effort here from the Beavers at home.
Whether it’s enough for them to pull off the upset I don’t know, but I think they can keep it within the number. For the biggest key to the Beavers being able to cover is they have an offense that has shown they can put points on the board and Oregon’s defense is one that can be exploited. Give me the Beavers +17.