This Saturday the Oregon Ducks will host the Oregon State Beavers in a big in-state rivalry showdown. Kickoff is set for 4:00 EST at Autzen Stadium and will be televised on the Pac-12 Network.
Oddsmakers opened up this game at Oregon -18, but early money on the Ducks has the line anywhere from -19 to -20 depending on where you shop. The total opened at 68, but is down to 63.5 and even 63 at some places.
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Oregon State vs Oregon Game Preview & Betting Odds
Oregon State Beavers (5-6 SU, 8-3 ATS)
The Beavers come into this one off one of the more entertaining games of Week 13. Unfortunately for Oregon State they were on the losing end, as they fell 54-53 at Washington State. Both teams finished with more than 600 yards of total offense. The 4th quarter alone was nuts, as the two teams combined to score 7 touchdowns in the final 15 minutes.
It had to be a tough loss to swallow for the Beavers, as they led 53-42 with less than 5 minutes to play and watched Washington State score the game-winning touchdown with a mere 2-seconds left on the clock. What really makes that defeat sting is had Oregon State won they would have goth their 6th win and reached bowl eligibility.
Oregon Ducks (9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS)
The Ducks are also coming into this game off a crushing defeat. Oregon fell 28-31 at Arizona State as a 13-point favorite. The Ducks did their best to rally from a 24-7 4th quarter deficit but just didn’t have enough time to finish off the comeback.
It was Oregon’s first loss since they fell to Auburn in the season-opener, snapping their 9-game winning streak. It also put to rest any shot the Ducks had of sneaking into the 4-team playoff. With a spot in next week’s Pac-12 title game against Utah already locked up, you have to wonder how motivated Oregon is going to be for this one.
This has not exactly been a competitive rivalry of late. Last year the Ducks cruised to a 55-15 win at Oregon State as a 18-point favorite. The year before Oregon won 69-10 as a 26-point home favorite.
Free College Football Against the Spread Pick: Oregon State +20
My early lean here would be to grab as many points as you can with the Beavers. Usually I would look to fade a team like the Beavers off such a crushing loss like they suffered at Washington State last week, but not this time around. Oregon State is getting up to play Oregon no matter what the circumstances and they desperately need a win here to get bowl eligible.
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While I’m 100% confident we get the best Oregon State has to offer, I got massive concerns here with Oregon showing up for this game. As tough as the Beavers loss had to be to swallow, it comes no where close to the heartache that the Ducks are dealing with from last week’s upset loss at Arizona State. That loss ended any hopes Oregon had of making the 4-team playoff.
With the playoffs out of the picture, there’s nothing for the Ducks to play for. They already got the Pac-12 North locked up and know they are going to be playing Utah in the Pac-12 title game with a chance to ruin the Utes hopes of making the playoff. This is such a bad spot for Oregon that I not only think they don’t cover, but I wouldn’t be shocked at all if they lost this game outright.
It reminds me a lot of a game I gave out a few years ago (2016) with Kentucky +27 at Louisville. The then Lamar Jackson led Cardinals were ranked No. 11 and were without a doubt the more talented team. However, they had just suffered their second loss of the season the week before at Houston, ending their hopes of making the playoffs. A 6-5 Kentucky team defeated their in-state rivals 41-38. Give me the Beavers +20 and if you are feeling frisky don’t be afraid to lay a little on the money line.