This Saturday the No. 17 ranked Oregon Ducks (4-1) will host the No. 7 ranked Washington Huskies in huge Pac-12 mashup that could decide who represents the North Division in the Pac-12 title game. Kickoff is set for 3:30 EST at Autzen Stadium and will be televised on either ABC or ESPN2.
The books opened this game with the Huskies as a 3-point road favorite. It’s still at 3 at a lot of places, but several have jumped it up to Washington -3.5. The total of this matchup is currently 57.5 points. Click here for a full look at the Week 7 NCAAF odds and for more links to our game previews.
Oregon vs Washington Vegas Game Odds & Betting Predictions
Washington comes into this one off a 31-24 win at UCLA, but failed to cover as a 21.5-point road favorite. It looked like the Huskies were well on their way to a cover, as they led the Bruins 24-7 at the half. Washington has now won 5 straight since that Week 1 loss to Auburn, but are just 2-4 ATS on the season.
The Ducks enter off their bye week. Last time out they went on the road and defeated Cal 42-24 as a mere 2-point road favorite. It was an impressive bounce back win for Oregon, who was coming off that crushing loss to Stanford at home the week before. The Ducks had failed to cover each of their previous 3 games before the cover against the Golden Bears.
The Huskies have won convincingly the last two years. They won 70-21 as a 10-point road favorite in 2016 and 38-3 as a 17.5-point home favorite last season. It’s quite the change of events, as Oregon had won 12 straight in the series before that lopsided defeat a couple years back.
Vegas Free NCAAF Betting Pick: Washington -3
I would lean towards laying just a field goal with Washington in this one, but this is one I’ll likely stay away from, as I just don’t love betting against the Ducks as a home dog. Oregon should have beat Stanford as a 3-point home dog a few weeks back, but completely melted down in the 2nd half. I actually like the Ducks a lot in that game, as I just didn’t feel Stanford was good enough to be favored on the road.
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That was also a night game, where Autzen Stadium turns into a whole different beast. The home crowd is definitely going to be rowdy, but it’s just not the same with an afternoon kickoff. The even bigger thing for me, is I think this Washington team is the real deal and built to go into a hostile environment and get a win.
Don’t be fooled by the Huskies only beating UCLA by 7. Washington had a 24-7 lead at the half and simply took their foot off the gas in the 2nd half, knowing they had this big game on deck. They know that this game against Oregon is likely the only thing keeping them from winning the Pac-12 North and staying alive in the playoff chase.
There’s no question that the Ducks have a dynamic offense behind one of the most underrated signal callers in the nation in Justin Herbert, but I just think he’s going to have to do too much. Oregon doesn’t have a great defense and their biggest weakness has been stopping the pass. The Ducks are an impressive 18th against the run (108.6 ypg), but are 89th against the pass (238.2 ypg). Washington is just 72nd in rushing (170.7 ypg), but are 33rd in passing (272 ypg).
I’ll simply take my chances that Jake Browning and the Huskies are able to put together more scoring drives in this one, as Washington doesn’t just have a good defense, they have one of the best stop units in the country. The Huskies are 42nd against the run (128.8 ypg) and 17th against the pass (174.7 ypg).
It’s also worth noting that Washington is an impressive 11-3 ATS in the 14 games under Chris Petersen where they have been listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points, while the Ducks are a mere 2-11 ATS in their last 13 off a win and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 off a win by 17 or more points. Give me the Huskies -3!