The Green Bay Packers (7-3) will host the Chicago Bears (4-6) in Thursday’s Thanksgiving triple-header finale. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:30 EST at Lambeau Field and will be televised nationally on NBC. Taking a look at our Week 12 NFL spreads, Green Bay is currently listed as a 9-point home favorite with the total set at 46.5 points.
Green Bay was able to snap their 3-game losing streak with an impressive 30-13 road win over the Vikings as a 1-point underdog. Chicago on the other hand, lost a heartbreaker at home 15-17 as a 2.5-point dog to the Broncos.
These two teams met way back in Week 1, which the Packers won 31-23 as a 6-point road favorite. It was Green Bay’s 4th straight win in the series and 9th in the last 10 meetings overall.
Early Lean on Packers -9
I think last week’s big win over the Vikings was just the beginning of a late season surge for the Packers, as I expect this team to get back to the form that had them open the season 7-0. The thing about Green Bay’s 30-13 win over the Vikings is that it could have been an even bigger blowout. The Packers had to settle for 5 field goals in that contest.
The win over Minnesota also put Green Bay back in the drivers seat in the NFC North. However, there’s no time to relax, as they still have to play the Vikings again in Week 17 and are tied record wise at 7-3. The last thing this team wants to do is follow up that big victory with a loss at home to the Bears.
The Packers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 after playing their previous game on the road and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a road win.
Chicago is certainly going to be up for this game against their division rivals, but it’s also a tough spot for the Bears. Chicago had won 2 straight before last week’s loss to the Broncos, where they were a failed 2-point conversion away from sending the game into overtime. Close losses like that can be difficult to bounce back from, especially on the road with a short week of rest.
The other factor here that can’t be overlooked is the fact that this is a prime time home game for Green Bay. It’s no secret that Rodgers and the Packers are at their best at home and rarely does Rodgers disappointment in the national spotlight at Lambeau. Green Bay is also going to be motivated here due to losing their last home game against Detroit, which brings up an interesting stat, as the Packers haven’t lost consecutive home games with Rodgers at quarterback since his first year as the starter.
Chicago is just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games with a total set at 45.5 to 49 points and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 when they come in having won 2 of their last 3. The Packers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 after playing their previous game on the road and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a road win.