The Green Bay Packers (1-1-1) host the Buffalo Bills (1-2) on Sunday morning in a battle between two teams in search of their second victory of the season. Kickoff is set for 1:00 PM EST on Sunday, September 30th at Lambeau Field. The game will be televised on CBS.

Oddsmakers opened this game up with the Packers listed as as 10.5-point home favorites. That line has barely changed, as Green Bay is currently available at -10. The total for this matchup is 46 points. Click here for a full look at the Week 4 NFL odds and for more links to our individual game previews.

Packers vs Bills Vegas Odds & Game Preview

Buffalo picked up their first win of the season last weekend after a shocking 27-6 road victory over the heavily favored Minnesota Vikings. The Bills could seemingly do no wrong, jumping all over the Vikings right out of the gate en route to a 27-0 lead a halftime. QB Josh Allen was fantastic in his second career start for the Bills, throwing for 196 yards and a touchdown while adding two more touchdowns on the ground. Allen has now thrown for over 500 passing yards and two touchdowns over this first several games in the NFL. RB LeSean McCoy was forced to miss the Bills Week 3 game with a rib injury and is listed as questionable for Week 4. Chris Ivory performed admirably as his replacement against Minnesota, rushing for 56 yards and adding 70 more in the passing game.

The Bills have really struggled defensively over the first few weeks of the season, allowing opponents to average 28.0 points per game on 336.7 total yards. While Buffalo has looked really good against the run (5th overall), they have struggled defending against the pass, giving up an average of 256.7 yards per game through the air (17th).

Green Bay got dominated by the Washington Redskins last week, losing 31-17 on the road to fall to 1-1-1 on the season. QB Aaron Rodgers is clearly still feeling the impact of a knee injury suffered in Week 1 against Chicago, as he was limping around multiple times last week. Rodgers still managed to pass for 265 yards and two touchdowns against Washington – he now has thrown for 832 yards, six touchdowns, and no interceptions in his three starts for the Packers this year. Green Bay has a dynamic receiving trio of Randall Cobb, Davante Adams, and Geronimo Allison who have combined for over 600 yards and six touchdowns so far. As a whole, Green Bay is currently averaging 23.3 points per game on 353.7 total yards.

The Packers haven’t looked good defensively so far this season, allowing opponents to average 27.7 points per game on 386.7 total yards. Green Bay seems to have struggled the most defending against the pass, as they are giving up an average of 262.3 yards per game through the air (20th overall).

Free NFL Betting Prediction: Bills -10

A few weeks ago I would have said there was a zero percent chance I would even THINK about taking the Bills against the spread in a road game against Rodgers in Lambeau. Times certainly have changed, as Josh Allen has led this Buffalo team out of the depths of despair and back on the road to respectability. Although it’s never a good idea to overreact to just one game, it is clear that what Allen showed against the Vikings last week is the real deal. While I don’t think the Bills will pull off a second straight road upset, I do think that they have enough going for them to keep this one close.  

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Buffalo is 5-1 ATS over their last six games playing on grass and 5-2 ATS over their last seven games in the month of September. Green Bay is just 2-5 ATS over their last seven home games, 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall, and 4-9 ATS over their last 13 games following a straight up loss.

The Packers certainly haven’t been great defensively, as they currently sit 26th in the NFL against the run and 22nd overall against the pass. As great as Aaron Rodgers has been over his career, his knee is definitely impacting his performance and he has been getting almost no help from a lackluster rushing offense that is only averaging 89.0 yards per game (24th). While I still think the Packers will find a way to grind out a victory at home in this one, I fully expect Buffalo to show up with another solid effort and keep things close for four quarters. I’ll take the free points in this particular spot all day- give me the Bills.