The Kansas City Chiefs will host the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:20 EST at Arrowhead Stadium and will be televised nationally on NBC.
This game was one a lot of people had circled, as it would have been our first head-to-head showdown between Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes. Unfortunately Mahomes suffered a dislocated knee cap and is unlikely to play.
These are always tough games for the oddsmakers. Without Mahomes the Chiefs go from being a home favorite to a home dog. Books opened the game at Green Bay -3, but that didn’t last long. Packers are up to -4 at most places and there’s some -4.5’s out there.
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Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Packers vs Chiefs
Green Bay Packers (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS)
Lot of people cashed in on the Packers in their 42-24 blowout win at home over the Raiders, easily cashing as a 6-point favorite. It was a vintage Aaron Rodgers performance, as he completed 25 of 31 pass attempts for 429 yards and 5 scores. He also added a short rushing TD to give him as many touchdowns as incompletions.
One thing to note is the game could have been a lot different if not for two huge goal line stands. The Raiders fumbled on 2nd & Goal from the 1 and turned it over on downs after having a 1st and goal from the 7. Oakland also threw a pick in the redzone. Despite losing by 18-points, Raiders had a 484 to 481 edge in total yards.
Green Bay has won 3 straight overall, giving them two 3-game winning streaks on the season. Their only setback remains a Thursday night game against the Eagles.
Kansas City Chiefs (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS)
There was a ton of concern with the Chiefs going on the road to face division rival Denver on Thursday, as the injuries were mounting up for KC and they had lost two straight. The fact that the Chiefs were only a 3-point favorite says it all. Kansas City wound up winning easy 30-6, but it came at a price with Mahomes suffering an injury that could keep him out multiple weeks.
There is some talk that he could maybe return this week, but I just don’t see the Chiefs rushing back their most important player. The average recovery time for his injury is 3-6 weeks.
Mahomes’ injury has been the center of attention and rightfully so, but you got to give the Chiefs defense credit for how they played. Kansas City held the Broncos to just 205 total yards and scored on a 5-yard fumble return.
Green Bay won the most recent meeting 38-28 as a 4.5-point home favorite back in 2015. Last time the Packers visited the Chiefs was in 2011 and that’s when the 13-0 Packers lost 19-14 as a 11-point favorite to a Chiefs team that came in at 5-8.
Free NFL Betting Pick & Prediction: Packers -4
My early lean here would be to lay the points with the Packers in this one. This play is definitely under the belief that Mahomes will not play. I just can’t see them rushing him back for this game. With that said, I believe the drop-off from Mahomes to backup Matt Moore is significant.
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Moore finished with 117 yards in relief of Mahomes against the Broncos, but it wasn’t pretty for the most part. Take out the 57-yard pass to Tyreek Hill and the offense did next to nothing with him under center. The only other scoring drives under Moore was his first series when he took over with a 1st & Goal from the 3 and had to settle for a field goal. The other came on a field goal after Denver went for it and failed on 4th down.
Green Bay’s defense is better than they showed last week against the Raiders and I expect a max effort from them in a prime time game. I just don’t see the Chiefs’ offense being able to do enough to give them a shot at winning this game or keeping it close.
As for Kansas City’s defense, I’m not reading anything into that performance against the Broncos. I don’t know what Denver is doing with Joe Flacco at quarterback, but it looks like he doesn’t want to be there and that offensive line is trash.
Based off what we have seen from this defense prior that game, I would be absolutely shocked if the Packers didn’t march the ball up and down the field. Keep in mind with KC’s offense likely limited, they should be getting pretty good field position throughout. Give me the Packers -4!