The Miami Dolphins (5-4) travel to Wisconsin this weekend for a showdown with the Green Bay Packers (3-4-1). Kickoff is set for 4:25 PM EST on November 11th at Lambeau Field and the game will be broadcast on CBS.

Oddsmakers opened this game up with the Packers listed as 10-point home favorites. That line has remained unchanged after early betting, as Green Bay is currently available at -10. The total for this matchup is 47.5 points. Click here for a full look at the Week 10 NFL odds and for more links to our individual game previews.

Packers vs Dolphins Vegas Odds & Game Preview

Miami got back above .500 last weekend after a hard-fought 13-6 victory over the New York Jets. The Dolphins were fantastic on the defensive side of the ball, racking up four interceptions and limiting New York to only 168 yards of total offense. QB Brock Osweiler was average at best against the Jets, passing for 139 yards. However, he did manage to avoid turning the ball over, which was clearly a big key to victory for Miami heading into Week 9. Ryan Tannehill is out again this weekend against the Packers, so Osweiler will get another start in his place. He hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in either of his last two games, which certainly doesn’t bode well in this matchup against a capable Green Bay offense. As a whole, Miami is currently averaging 20.8 points per game (24th overall) on just 315.8 total yards of offense.

Things have generally looked about average on the other side of the ball, as the Dolphins are currently giving up an average of 25.0 points per game (18th overall). However, they have really had a hard time defending against the rush, allowing opponents to rack up 136.1 yards per game on the ground (28th overall).

Green Bay dropped back below .500 on the year last weekend after a tough 31-17 loss to New England on Sunday Night Football. The Packers looked pretty good in the first half before allowing the Pats to score 14 unanswered points in the 4th quarter to seal the win. QB Aaron Rodgers threw for 259 yards and two touchdowns in the loss – he now has 2,542 passing yards and 15 touchdowns in eight games so far this season. RB Aaron Jones continues to see a larger workload following the departure of Ty Montgomery, rushing for 350 yards and two touchdowns since Week 1. Overall, Green Bay is currently averaging 24.0 points per game (14th overall) on 406.5 total yards.

The Packers haven’t looked all that great defensively, as they are currently giving up 25.5 points per game (20th overall) on 352.4 yards of total offense. They have struggled the most against the run, as opponents are averaging 119.6 yards per game on the ground (22nd overall).

Free NFL Betting Prediction: Miami +10

I think I’m going to go a bit against the grain in this particular spot, as most touts seem to be all over Green Bay in this matchup. However, the Packers haven’t been blowing teams out a lot lately – especially this year where they have only recorded one double-digit victory all season long. They couldn’t beat San Francisco by more than a field goal and lost to both Washington and Detroit by 7+ points. I absolutely think Miami is in the same category as those two teams, especially since Osweiler led the Dolphins to a victory over Chicago a couple weeks back. While I’m not going to say that they win on the road straight up, ten points is simply too many to leave sitting on the table.  

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Green Bay is just 4-10 ATS over their last 14 games in the month of November. They are also only 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record and 3-8 ATS over their last 11 games overall. Miami is 4-1 ATS in their last five games on grass and 5-4 ATS over their last nine games overall.

While some might expect a warm-weather team like the Dolphins to struggle in the frigid cold on a November afternoon in Wisconsin, they have actually done quite well at Lambeau Field as of late. Miami is a very impressive 4-1 ATS over their last five games in Green Bay, which shows that the weather may not be as much of a factor as some assume it might. I really do expect that trend to continue here in Week 10, so I’m taking all the free points and rolling with the road underdog to cover.