The Green Bay Packers (3-0) will host the Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) on Thursday Night Football. This Week 4 matchup is scheduled for 8:20 EST at Lambeau Field and will be televised on both FOX and the NFL Network.
Oddsmakers opened up this game with the Packers at -4. That line has been bet up to Green Bay -4.5 at most books and some have them at -5. The total has also been moving. It opened at 47.5 and is down to 45 and even 44.5 at some places.
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Packers vs Eagles Vegas Spread Preview
The Eagles come into this one off a surprising 24-27 loss at home to the Detroit Lions. Coming off a 20-24 loss at the Falcons the previous week, that’s a game people didn’t see them losing. The only win on the schedule is a 32-27 Week 1 win at home against the Redskins and they had to rally from a 20-7 halftime deficit in that contest.
Eagles have not been kind to those that have backed them early. Philadelphia is 0-3 ATS and have already lost outright twice as a favorite.
Turnovers have been a problem in both losses. Philadelphia coughed it up 3 times in the loss at Atlanta and 2 more last week against Detroit. Carson Wentz has been solid, but still doesn’t look like the guy that was the MVP frontrunner a couple years back.
Green Bay Packers
While Philadelphia has been a disappoint, the Packers are enjoying one of their better starts at 3-0. That includes a 2-0 record inside the division with one of those on the road against the Bears.
Last week Green Bay took care of business at home with a 27-16 win and cover as a 7-point favorite against the Broncos. It was another great showing for the Packers defense, as they have now held all 3 of their opponents under 20 points. They also forced 3 more turnovers, giving them a NFL-best 8 on the season. They also lead the league with a +6 turnover margin.
While the defense has been solid and Green Bay has yet to lose, the offense is still a work in progress. Aaron Rodgers has a not thrown an interception, but only has 4 TD passes, been sacked 7 times the last two games and ranks just 25th in passing at 215.7 ypg.
This will be the first meeting between these two teams since 2016, when the Packers won 27-13 as a 4-point road dog on Monday Night Football. It was the first of 6 straight wins for Green Bay to close out the season after Rodgers infamously said they needed to run the table.
Free Pick & Betting Predictions: OVER 44.5
My early lean here would be to play the OVER 44.5. Even though we haven’t seen a ton of scoring early on in these Thursday Night matchups, I still think there’s some value to be had on that side of the total in these games played on just 3 days of rest.
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I think one of the big focal points coming into this game will be how good the Green Bay defense has played. I’m not about to say the Packers defense hasn’t been good, but I also don’t think it’s as good as some might think. Let’s not overlook the fact that the 3 quarterbacks Green Bay has faced are Mitch Trubisky, Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco. I think we all would take Carson Wentz over any of those 3 starters.
Another thing to note is that while Green Bay has not allowed a lot of points, teams are running the ball effectively on them. Packers are allowing 131 ypg and 4.9 yards/carry against the run.
As for the Eagles defense, they have done an outstanding job against the run, but have had their problems against the pass. Philadelphia is only allowing 57 yards/game and 2.9 yards/carry against the run, but allowing 294 passing yards/game and 7.4 yards/pass attempt. I know Rodgers hasn’t been lighting it up, but I could see him going off in this prime time matchup.
OVER is 16-5 in the Packers last 21 vs a team with a losing record. OVER is also 35-17 in the Eagles last 52 off a straight up loss and 4-1 in their last 5 games played on Thursday.
OVER is 40-16 (71%) the last 10 seasons when you have a home team playing in the month of September that has covered the spread in each of their last two games. Take the OVER!