This Sunday the Green Bay Packers (4-7-1) will host the Atlanta Falcons (4-8). Kickoff is set for 1:00 EST at Lambeau Field and will be televised locally on FOX.

Taking a look at the Week 14 NFL odds, the books have Green Bay listed as a 5-point home favorite with the total set for 50.5 points.

Packers vs Falcons Vegas Betting Odds & Game Predictions

Atlanta comes into this one off a 26-16 loss at home to the Ravens as a 3-point favorite. That’s four straight losses for the Falcons, putting to rest any hopes that this team would catch fire down the stretch and make a run at the playoffs. Now it’s just a matter of whether this team will continue to push through this disappointing season.

It’s a very similar story in Green Bay, where the Packers are coming off a shocking home loss to the Cardinals as a massive 13.5-point favorite. That was the final straw for ownership with head coach Mike McCarthy, who was fired after the embarrassing defeat. Green Bay has lost 3 straight and are just 1-5 in their last 6. It looks like another wasted year for Aaron Rodgers, who is too good to be out of the playoff hunt this early in the season.

Free NFL Betting Preview & Pick Against the Spread: Packers -5

These aren’t exactly two teams you want to be backing right now with how they are playing, but I would have to lean towards laying the points here with Green Bay at home.

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A big reason for that is the fact that they fired McCarthy. A move I completely agree with given how this team has underperformed. It just feels like anytime a head coach gets fired in the middle of the season, they come out and play one of their best games the next time they take the field. I think some of that is they feel responsible for their coach losing his job and they also realize their jobs are no longer safe, so there’s an urgency to perform well.

I also think that as long as Aaron Rodgers is starting and the Packers are mathematically still alive for a playoff spot, they are going to keep fighting. This team has been in this spot before with their backs against the wall and delivered, so they have no reason to not go out without a fight.

Another thing for me is I think this Atlanta offense is broken right now. The Falcons haven’t reached the 20-point mark in any of their last 4 games. They have absolutely zero threat of a running game right now (52.8 ypg last 4) and last week against the Ravens were held to just 97 passing yards. I think offensive coordinator Greg Sarkisian is on his final straw and the bigger issue is the Falcons can’t protect Ryan. He’s been sacked 36 times in 12 games (previous high for a season is 44).

I personally have a hard time seeing them snapping out of that funk in this one. I just don’t like these dome teams playing on the road late in the year. The temperature for this game is expected to be in the mid to low 20s. That’s no fun to play in, especially for a team that’s not use to it and one that really has nothing to play for.

I know the Packers just lost as a big home favorite, but they are still 25-13 ATS with Rodgers at quarterback when the game is played at Lambeau Field and 23-13 in his last 36 as a home favorite.

Green Bay has also compiled an impressive 62-39 ATS record over the final 4 weeks of the regular season and are 9-3 ATS the last 3 seasons as a home favorite of 7-points or less. Give me the Packers -5.