The Green Bay Packers (3-3-1) travel to Foxborough this weekend to take on the New England Patriots (6-2). Kickoff is set for 6:30 PM EST on November 4th at Gillette Stadium. The game will be televised on NBC.
Oddsmakers opened this game up with the Patriots listed as 6.5-point home favorites. That line has moved by a full point after early betting, as New England is currently available at -5.5. The total for this matchup is 56.5 points. Click here for a full look at the Week 9 NFL odds and for more links to our individual game previews.
Patriots vs Packers Vegas Odds & Game Preview
Green Bay lost a tough 29-27 decision to the undefeated Los Angeles Rams last weekend, as Aaron Rodgers lost his shot at leading yet another game winning drive after Ty Montgomery lost control of the football on a punt return late in the 4th quarter. The mistake may have cost Montgomery his job in Green Bay, as he was traded to Baltimore on Tuesday. Rodgers had a decent game against the Rams, throwing for almost 300 yards through the air while also adding a touchdown. RB Aaron Jones had a surprisingly good game on the ground, rushing for 86 yards and a touchdown on just 12 carries. As a whole, the Packers are currently averaging 25.0 points per game (13th overall) on 412.1 total yards of offense. They have really looked strong in the passing game, averaging 308.1 yards per game (5th overall).
The Packers have been pretty mediocre defensively so far this season, as they are currently giving up an average of 24.7 points per game (17th overall). They have been especially poor against the run, as opponents are currently averaging 119.1 yards per game on the ground (22nd overall).
New England won their fifth consecutive game on Monday after a dominating performance against the Buffalo Bills. The Patriots were clearly superior on both sides of the ball en route to a 25-6 win to improve to 6-2 overall. QB Tom Brady is having another fantastic season, throwing for 2,200 yard and 16 touchdowns in just eight games. Brady finally looks to have a somewhat healthy receiving corps to work with, which could spell trouble for opponents moving forward. RB Sony Michel suffered a knee injury back in Week 7 and is currently questionable for Sunday night. If he is ruled out, James White will likely receive the the bulk of the carries, although Cordarrelle Patterson appears to be carving out a role in this offense as well. As a whole, New England is currently averaging 29.9 points per game (4th overall) on 381.9 total yards
The Patriots have had an up and down year defensively, as they have been prone to giving up big games to talented offenses. They will likely have their hands full against Rodgers and Co. this weekend, especially in a big prime-time game where he is usually at his very best. New England is currently giving up 23.1 points per game (12th overall) on 382.8 yards of total offense.
Free NFL Betting Prediction: New England -5.5
NBC must be extremely excited to be broadcasting this game on Sunday night, as Brady vs. Rodgers always draws huge ratings. However, I’m honestly a little shocked that the line is currently just -5.5, especially considering that New England is playing at home and has now won five consecutive games. The Pats are firing on all cylinders on offense right now – they also appear to have figured out many of their defensive problems that have plagued them at times this season. Rodgers will certainly put some points on the board, but I’m not quite sure that this Packers defense is capable of slowing down Brady in this particular spot.
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Green Bay is only 1-4 ATS over their past five road games. They are also just 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss and 7-16 ATS over their last 23 games in the month of November. New England is a very solid 13-3 ATS over their last 16 games against teams with a losing record. The Pats are also 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games following an against the spread win and 36-16 ATS over their last 52 games overall.
While I never like to underestimate Rodgers – especially in prime-time games – I don’t think he will be able to pull a rabbit out of the hat this weekend against a New England team that is currently riding a ton of momentum. Green Bay also just lost their starting safety, trading Ha Ha Clinton-Dix to Baltimore despite the fact that he was leading the team in interceptions. I’m more than happy to lay anything under seven points in this matchup – 5.5 seems like a steal. I’m taking the Pats to keep things rolling while also easily covering the number.