The Carolina Panthers (5-4) host the Atlanta Falcons (2-7) this weekend for an NFC South clash from Charlotte.  Kickoff is set for 1:00 PM EST on November 17th at Bank of America Stadium and the game will be broadcast on FOX.

Oddsmakers opened this game up with the Panthers listed as 5.5-point home favorites. The spread has come down by over a full point after early betting, as Carolina is currently available at -4. The total for this matchup is 49.5 points. Click here for a full look at the Week 11 NFL odds and for more links to our individual game previews.

Panthers vs Falcons Game Odds & Betting Preview

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons stunned New Orleans last weekend, pulling off a 26-9 upset on the road despite being double-digit underdogs. Atlanta jumped out to an early 13-6 lead and never looked back, cruising to their second win of the season over the final two quarters of the game. QB Matt Ryan went 20/35 for 182 passing yards and two touchdowns through the air while RB Brian Hill rushed for 60 yards on 20 carries after Devonta Freeman was forced to leave the game due to injury. Hill also found the end zone on a ten yard passing play while Julio Jones made three receptions for 79 yards. As a whole, the Falcons generated well over 300 total yards of offense in the victory.

Atlanta was exceptional defensively against the Saints, holding New Orleans to just three field goals despite giving up over 350 total yards of offense. The Falcons were especially solid against the run, giving up only 52 net rushing yards.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers have now lost two out of their last three games after falling 24-16 on the road in Green Bay last weekend to drop to 5-4 on the season overall. Carolina gave up ten unanswered points in the third quarter and never recovered, coming up over a touchdown short in the first “snow game” of the year. QB Kyle Allen went 28/43 for 307 passing yards and a touchdown through the air while RB Christian McCaffrey racked up 141 all-purpose yards and found the end zone once. D.J. Moore led the way for the receiving corps, hauling in nine catches for 120 yards. Overall, the Panthers gained well over 400 total yards of offense in the defeat.

Carolina had a below average outing on the other side of the ball in Week 10, surrendering almost 400 total yards of offense and three touchdowns. The Panthers had no answer for Packers RB Aaron Jones on the ground, as he torched the defense for 93 rushing yards and three touchdowns on just 13 carries.

Free NFL Betting Predictions and Pick: Panthers -4

While I was leaning away from this NFC South matchup entirely when the spread opened at 5.5 points, I think that Carolina now offers pretty decent value at home at just -4. The market may have slightly overreacted to the Falcons win on the road last weekend, as their massive upset may have caused some bettors to fall victim to recency bias. It is important to remember this is still the same Atlanta team that is just 3-6 against the spread so far this season and is currently without both Ito Smith and Devonta Freeman on the ground. Of course, Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley could both have decent outings against a relatively average Panthers defense. Still, Carolina has won both of their home games since October 1st by at least a touchdown, including a ten-point victory over Tennessee at the beginning of November.

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The Falcons have also really struggled on the road this year, covering the number just once over their last six outings away from Mercedes-Benz Stadium. On the other side, the Panthers are a very respectable 5-2 against the spread through their first seven games – including a 2-0 record ATS in their last two games at Bank of America Stadium. I’m going to lay the four points and roll with the slight home favorite in a game that they need to win in order to try and catch the Saints for the division lead. Give me Carolina to cover!