The Buffalo Bills (2-5) are set to host the New England Patriots (5-2) on Monday Night Football. This AFC East showdown will kickoff at 8:15 EST at New Era Field and will be televised on ESPN.

Taking a look at the Week 8 NFL odds, the books have the Patriots listed as a massive 13.5-point road favorite with the total set for 44 points.

Patriots vs Bills Game Betting Preview & Vegas Odds

New England comes into this one off a hard fought 38-31 win at Chicago, where they covered as a slim 2-point road favorite. It didn’t look good early for the Patriots, as Chicago led 17-7 early in the 2nd quarter. New England went on a 31-7 run after falling behind by double-digits and were able to hold on late for the win. That’s now 4 straight wins for the Patriots, who have also covered 3 of their last 4.

Buffalo enters off an ugly 37-5 loss at Indianapolis as a 7-point dog. The Bills sent out veteran Derek Anderson in place of injured rookie starter Josh Allen. It wasn’t a good debut to say the least. Anderson completed 20 of 31 attempts, but only had a 175 yards. He also threw 3 interceptions and lost a fumble, as Buffalo had as many points as they did turnovers. That’s now 4 straight games in which the Bills have failed to score at least 14 points.

I don’t think many will be surprise to hear that New England has dominated this series. The Patriots are 28-3 against Buffalo with Tom Brady at quarterback. You have to go back to Week 17 of the 2014 season to find the last time NE lost to Buffalo with Brady at quarterback. Last year they won 23-3 as a 7.5-point road favorite and 37-16 as a 11-point home favorite.

Free NFL Pick Against the Spread: Patriots -13.5

My early lean here would have to be laying the points with New England, though this is one I’m likely just going to avoid playing all together. History is going to suggest that you take the big division home dog here, but history hasn’t seen an offense as bad as what Buffalo will put on display for Monday Night Football. The Bills are on pace to finish this season with the worst offensive efficiency we have ever seen.

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It’s not easy beating a team in the NFL by two touchdowns on the road, but I just don’t know how you can trust this Bills team to keep this within 13 points. If this were an early Sunday kickoff, I might consider rolling the dice with Buffalo, but no way is Tom Brady and the Patriots not showing up for the bright lights of Monday Night Football. On top of that, New England has consistently been the team that has overcome these key situational trends under Brady and Belichick.

I just don’t know how the Bills can keep this one competitive. New England’s offense is clicking right now. The Patriots have scored at least 38 points in 3 straight games. If they hit that mark here, Buffalo would need to score 25 to cover. The Bills have scored 25 or more just once this season. Chances are they will struggle to just score 20, as they have failed to simply reach 14 points in 5 of their 7 games.

With Josh Allen sidelined, Buffalo is likely to go with Derek Anderson again, but I’m not so sure he’s a much better option than Nathan Peterman, which says a lot given how atrocious Peterman has been when he’s played a meaningful game. Not to mention the Bills might be without their biggest offensive weapon in LeSean McCoy, who has still not passed concussion protocol. If Buffalo can’t run the ball, get ready to see a bunch more turnovers from this offense, which is a recipe for disaster against Brady and this Pats offense.

I know the Bills are going to get up for this game and the home fans will be pumped up for prime time, but there’s simply a massive edge in both talent on the field and in coaching that I would have to roll the dice with the Patriots if I were to play this one. Give me New England -13.5.