The New England Patriots (12-3) host the Miami Dolphins (4-11) this weekend for an AFC East clash from Foxborough. Kickoff is set for 1:00 PM EST on December 29th at Gillette Stadium and the game will be televised on CBS.
Oddsmakers opened this game up with the Patriots listed as 15.5-point home favorites. The spread has increased by half a point after early betting, as New England is currently available at -16. The total for this matchup is 44.5 points. Click here for a full look at the Week 17 NFL odds and for more links to our individual game previews.
Patriots vs Dolphins Game Odds & Betting Preview
The Dolphins snapped a two game losing streak last weekend, beating Cincinnati 38-35 in overtime to improve to 4-11 on the season overall. Miami blew a 28-12 second half lead in the fourth quarter, getting outscored 23-7 by the Bengals over the final 15 minutes of the game. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was fantastic, going 31/52 for 419 passing yards and four touchdowns through the air. Myles Gaskin led the way on the ground before being forced to leave the game due to injury, rushing for 55 yards and a touchdown on a team-high 16 carries. DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki torched the secondary, combining for 193 yards and three touchdowns. Overall, the Dolphins generated over 500 total yards of offense and found the end zone five times in the win.
Miami was brutal defensively against the Bengals, getting lit up for over 450 total yards of offense and four touchdowns. The Dolphins had no answer for Cincinnati WR Tyler Boyd, allowing him to explode for 128 receiving yards and two touchdowns on nine catches.
New England Patriots
The Patriots clinched yet another division title last weekend, outlasting Buffalo 24-17 at home to improve to 12-3 on the season overall. New England scored 11 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to pull off an impressive comeback after trailing for much of the second half. QB Tom Brady went 26/33 for 271 passing yards and a touchdown through the air while RB Sony Michel rumbled for 96 rushing yards on a team-high 21 carries. Rex Burkhead also chipped in, making four catches for 77 yards. As a whole, the Patriots gained over 400 total yards and scored two touchdowns on offense in the victory.
New England had a decent outing on the other side of the ball against the Bills, surrendering 300 total yards of offense and two touchdowns. The Patriots couldn’t find a way to slow down Buffalo WR Cole Beasley, as he recorded seven catches for a game-high 108 receiving yards.
Free NFL Betting Predictions and Pick: Dolphins +16
I really don’t see how I can leave this many points on the board in this AFC East showdown, as New England will almost certainly rest the majority of their starters for at least a couple quarters after clinching the division last weekend. While the Patriots are still playing for a first-round bye, they should be able to jump out to an early lead before taking their foot off the gas down the stretch. Miami has also really played well on offense over the past month or so, scoring at least 30 points twice since the beginning of November.
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It is also important to note that the Dolphins have really fared well against the spread since the middle of October, going a rock-solid 8-3 ATS over their last eleven outings. While it is at least somewhat concerning that Miami is a dreadful 0-7 against the spread in their last seven trips to Gillette Stadium, New England really won’t want to run up the score with the playoffs looming. I’m going to roll the dice with the boatload of points and take a shot with the massive road underdog on Sunday afternoon – give me the Dolphins to cover.